Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK): analysis and signal as of September 4, 2026

Published on September 5, 2026 at 01:13 · Updated on September 5, 2026 at 01:13 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NASDAQ · Sector : Technology

In short

The signal is weak, with a vote of two votes out of three, and the guardrail-weighted signal comes out at +0,00, i.e. Neutral. The three analysis layers do not converge, with technicals degraded while the macro context remains bullish.

Current signal: weak (vote 2/3)
Deterministic score: +2.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat	+2.0
penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower)	-1.5
favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score)	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns	+1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5

Thesis

The guardrail-weighted signal comes out at +0,00, i.e. Neutral, with a vote of two votes out of three. The three analysis layers do not converge: fundamentals are not verifiable, technicals are degraded and sentiment is positive. The macro context is bullish, rated 0,58, but US inflation remains off target, which keeps structural pressure on software publisher multiples. No direct catalyst appears in the milestone calendar, and the stock's position below the 200-session moving average limits conviction.

Bull case

The integration of generative AI into the Fusion, Forma and construction suites gives Autodesk indirect exposure to the AI theme, favored by the macro regime. The decline in short interest of 16,5 % at the last settlement removes part of the bearish pressure. The transition to the subscription model strengthens the recurring quality of revenue, and the AEC sector retains structural demand despite sensitivity to long rates.

Bear case

The technical setup is degraded, with the stock 5,8 % below the 50-session moving average and 12 % below the 200-session moving average. The overnight drift of 16,6 % over six months signals recurring negative revisions absorbed at the US open. The sensitivity of the AEC segment to real estate financing and US long rates, combined with inflation at 3,5 % off target, weighs on the valuation multiple. Finally, the impossibility of verifying the 2026 figures directly, with the SEC database returning a 403, prevents confirming a margin of safety.

Scenarios

Bullish scenario: 25 % probability, upside target of 15 to 25 % over twelve months, on an AI-related catalyst and US macro stabilization. Central scenario: 50 % probability, movement within a range between the current 200-session and 50-session moving averages, with a neutral drift. Bearish scenario: 25 % probability, loss of 25 to 35 % on negative guidance revisions and a downturn in the AEC segment.

Risks

The AEC sector is sensitive to real estate financing and US long rates. US inflation, at 3,5 %, remains off target and keeps pressure on the multiple. The 2026 figures are not verifiable directly, with the SEC database returning a 403, which prohibits any confirmation of a margin of safety. A break of the twelve-month low, confirmed on a weekly close, would invalidate the thesis without assigning a numerical level.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 4.03 %
Days to cover: 4.23
Settlement date: 2026-08-31
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-09-12)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 4, 2026	weak (2/3)	No notable change. No prior verdict is recorded for this stock, so maintaining a neutral signal reflects the absence of change from the initial state. No new verified numerical data has been incorporated since the last iteration.

Frequently asked questions

Why is the signal weak despite a bullish macro context?

The vote comes out at two votes out of three and the guardrail-weighted signal is at +0,00, reflecting a lack of convergence. The technical layer is degraded, with the stock below the 50-session moving average by 5,8 % and below the 200-session moving average by 12 %. The macro context remains bullish, but US inflation remains off target, which reduces confirmation.

What is the main bullish argument?

The integration of generative AI into the Fusion, Forma and construction suites provides indirect exposure to the AI theme. The fall in short interest of 16,5 % at the last settlement reduces bearish pressure. The subscription model strengthens the recurring nature of revenue, and the AEC sector retains structural demand, despite its sensitivity to long rates.

Why is the technical setup considered degraded?

The stock trades below the 50-session moving average by 5,8 % and below the 200-session moving average by 12 %. The overnight drift of 16,6 % over six months signals recurring negative revisions absorbed at the US open. This reflects persistent bearish pressure and an absence of directional catalyst in the milestone calendar.

What are the risks identified for the analysis?

The AEC sector is sensitive to real estate financing and US long rates. US inflation, at 3,5 %, remains off target and weighs on the valuation multiple. The 2026 figures are not verifiable directly, with the SEC database returning a 403, which prevents any confirmation of a margin of safety. A break of the twelve-month low on a weekly close would invalidate the thesis.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 28, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
August 27, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
August 3, 2026 — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)
July 13, 2026 — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 4, 2026; this page was completed on September 5, 2026 at 01:13 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (ADSK) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.