Public methodology: from data to signal
In one sentence
Each stock goes through deterministic checks (market and fundamental data, entities and sanctions, governance, concentration) that trigger weighted rules, then through three qualitative analysis layers (fundamentals, price, risks) and an arbitration rendered in 3 draws by language models (glm-5.3 / minimax-m3); the published signal is the majority vote, and the deterministic score measures the gap between the rules and the arbiter.
The chain, in code order
- Enrichment: fundamental and market data (yfinance), SEC filings, sanctions, country risk, governance. Nothing is invented: a missing value triggers no rule.
- Deterministic score: sum of the weights of the rules whose criterion holds (formula: score = Σ weighti for every triggered rule i). 62 rules carry a machine criterion out of 195; the others are documentary and guide the prompts.
- Qualitative layers: three agents (fundamentals, price, risks/sentiment/legislative) return a positive, neutral or negative verdict with a confidence level and dated facts.
- Arbitration: 3 draws of the same prompt on glm-5.3 / minimax-m3 alternately; majority vote on the signal (strong, moderate, weak, no signal); without a majority the verdict is flagged unstable. The previous verdict is shown to the arbiter; a signal change without a dated new fact is refused and the previous verdict kept.
- Monitoring: periodic re-scoring (every 6 hours) and alerts on red flags, score drops or concentration thresholds.
- Publication: the majority verdict is rewritten for the public by a language model under four automatic checks: no number that is not in the source verdict, no reference to the author's portfolio, filtering of buy, sell or wait formulations, and an issuer name resolved against a dated primary source (SEC conformed name, GLEIF legal name). A page failing any of the four is not published. Every page ends with a « Sources » block: the issuer's own official filings attached to that stock, with their date and link, and the reminder that the figures quoted come from the automated arbitration and are not re-checked one by one.
Scale: score → expected signal
Version 2026-09-02. Thresholds set on the quantiles of the scores of 2026-09-02 (286 stocks): “divergence” when the arbiter's signal departs by at least 2 notches from the expected signal. The signal measures the convergence of the analyses; it guarantees no outcome. Automatic checks do not determine the legal classification of the content.
| Expected signal | Score |
|---|---|
| strong | ≥ +4.5 |
| moderate | ≥ +1.5 |
| weak | ≥ -1.5 |
| no signal | otherwise |
Rule families and weights
| Family | Rules | Scored | Weight (min … max) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core, investisseurs-heureux.fr forum | 112 | 15 | -4.0 … +1.5 |
| Experts · value chain and moat | 12 | 5 | -1.5 … +2.0 |
| Experts · growth/GARP and macro risk | 14 | 7 | -2.5 … +1.5 |
| Experts · quantitative factors and flows | 10 | 5 | -0.5 … +0.5 |
| Experts · geopolitics, sanctions and treaties | 11 | 4 | -4.0 … +0.3 |
| Experts · governance and entities | 8 | 6 | -2.0 … +1.5 |
| Portfolio construction | 10 | 5 | -1.0 … +1.0 |
| rules-experts-positionnement.yaml | 6 | 5 | -0.5 … +0.5 |
| Experts · value and forensic quality | 12 | 10 | -3.0 … +2.0 |
What the system does not do
- The generator filters certain buy, sell or wait formulations; these checks do not guarantee the absence of content that may fall within investment recommendation rules.
- It does not predict prices and guarantees no return; scenarios are hypotheses.
- It places no order and is connected to no brokerage account.
- It produces no personalised advice: it knows neither your situation, nor your goals, nor your risk tolerance.
- Narratives and catalysts are produced by language models from dated public sources: they may contain errors or be outdated; quoted figures are not re-verified at publication.
- The deterministic score and the arbiter's signal are two distinct measures that can diverge; the page flags it.
The 195 rules
One row per rule loaded by the engine; the source is shown only when public (investisseurs-heureux.fr forum threads, books, official texts).
| Id | Criterion | Weight | Machine criterion | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
act-endettement-eleve | penalizes an asset whose net debt/EBITDA exceeds the threshold, and the use of leverage (margin/lombard) | -2.5 | dette_nette_ebitda > 3.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t29125 |
act-frais-effet-compose | penalizes high ongoing fees (compounding effect that erodes net performance) | -2.0 | frais_pct > 1.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t4614 |
act-gestion-passive | penalizes expensive active management (beating the index over the long term is rare) | -1.0 | gestion_active vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; S&P Dow Jones SPIVA Europe |
crypto-allocation-max | caps the crypto share | -2.0 | part_crypto_pct > 5.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; t32141 |
fis-estate-tax-us | penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 | domicile_etf == US | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; IRS situs rules |
fis-pea | favors the PEA wrapper (deferred PS, IR exemption after 5 years) | +1.5 | eligible_pea vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; service-public.gouv.fr F2385 |
fon-ltv-dette | penalizes a high LTV (solvency metric). Driver = the gap between net rental yield and the marginal cost of debt | -1.5 | ltv_pct > 45.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
obl-capitalisant | favors an accumulating ETF (defers tax until exit) vs a distributing ETF (taxed every year) | +1.0 | capitalisant vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; impots.gouv.fr |
obl-domicile-ie | favors an ETF domiciled in Ireland (ISIN IE…): no Irish withholding tax at distribution | +1.0 | domicile_etf == IE | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; factsheet émetteur (situs IE) |
obl-high-yield | penalizes High Yield sold as "safe" (it tracks equities) | -1.0 | high_yield vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-rendement-facial | a high nominal yield compensates for a risk. "Retail issuance" = negative signal | -1.5 | rendement_affiche > 8.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
pf-allocation-cible | target strategic allocation + weight cap per line | -1.5 | poids_ligne_pct > 20.0 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; t17 / t26998 |
rf-offshore | penalizes offshore domicile + opacity of the structure | -3.0 | offshore_opaque vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
rf-rendement-garanti | signal n°1: 'high yield AND guaranteed/risk-free' and 'redemption guarantee/0 default' = major red flag | -4.0 | garanti_sans_risque vrai None | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF liste noire |
vr-swr | safe withdrawal rate (4 %/25× rule, target 3-3,5 % over a long horizon) | -2.0 | taux_retrait_pct > 3.5 | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
cv-concentration-clients | penalizes an asset whose revenue share from its main customers exceeds the downstream dependence threshold | -1.5 | client_concentration_pct > 25.0 | SEC Regulation S-K Item 101(c) (17 CFR 229.101) ; FASB ASC 280-10-50-42 (client ≥ 10 % du CA) ; 10-K Item 1/1A ; cadre Porter (Bargaining Power of Buyers) |
cv-concentration-fournisseurs | penalizes an asset whose share of purchases concentrated on one supplier / a single source exceeds the upstream dependence threshold (disruption risk) | -1.5 | supplier_concentration_pct > 25.0 | SEC Regulation S-K Item 101(c) & Item 105 « Risk Factors » (17 CFR 229.105) ; 10-K Item 1/1A (single-source) ; cadre Porter (Bargaining Power of Suppliers) |
cv-moat-aucun-penalise | penalizes an asset rated "none" (no moat), no defensible competitive advantage, profitability exposed to erosion | -1.0 | moat_score == aucun | Morningstar, Economic Moat Rating Methodology ; Pat Dorsey, The Little Book That Builds Wealth (2008) |
cv-moat-large-favorise | favors an asset rated "large" (wide moat), a defensible structural competitive advantage over ~20 years (intangibles, switching costs, network, cost advantage, efficient scale) | +2.0 | moat_score == large | Morningstar, Economic Moat Rating Methodology ; Pat Dorsey, The Little Book That Builds Wealth (Wiley, 2008) ; métaphore des douves (Buffett, Berkshire) |
cv-pricing-power | favors an asset with proven pricing power (ability to raise prices above inflation without volume erosion, demonstrated by margin history) | +1.5 | pricing_power vrai None | Warren Buffett, témoignage Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2010, « pricing power ») ; élasticité-prix (Marshall, Principles of Economics, 1890) ; Porter, Competitive Advantage (1985, différenciation) |
cm-dalio-regime-expansion | favors growth-sensitive assets when the macro regime is in expansion | +1.0 | regime_macro == expansion | Ray Dalio, Principles (2017) ; Bridgewater, How the Economic Machine Works (2013) |
cm-dalio-regime-ralentissement | penalizes growth-sensitive assets when the macro regime is slowing (or in recession) | -1.0 | regime_macro == ralentissement | Ray Dalio, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (2018) ; Bridgewater, The All Weather Story (2012) |
cm-lynch-fast-grower | favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 | croissance_benefices_pct > 20.0 | Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street (1989), Part II Stalking the Tenbagger / The Six Categories |
cm-lynch-peg-attractif | favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 | peg_ratio < 1.0 | Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street (1989), ch. The P/E ratio — « fairly priced P/E = growth rate » |
cm-lynch-peg-excessif | penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 | peg_ratio > 2.0 | Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street (1989) ; Lynch & Rothchild, Beating the Street (1993) |
cm-taleb-levier-ruine | strongly penalizes the use of leverage (turns a drawdown into permanent loss), consistent with doctrine 2035, no leverage/SRD | -2.5 | levier vrai None | Nassim N. Taleb, Antifragile (2012) ; Edward O. Thorp, The Kelly Criterion (2006) |
cm-taleb-volatilite-excessive | penalizes excessive volatility (ruin risk), survival comes first, irreversible loss outweighs the optimization of return | -1.5 | volatilite_excessive vrai None | Nassim N. Taleb, The Black Swan (2007) ; Fooled by Randomness (2001) |
ff-cma-investissement | moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 | investissement_cma > 20.0 | Fama & French (2015), JFE 116(1):1-22 ; Cooper, Gulen & Schill (2008), Asset growth and the cross-section of stock returns, Journal of Finance 63(4) |
ff-detenteurs-communs-interlocks | a high concentration of common holders (BlackRock/Vanguard/ State Street in a stock and its competitors) = a slight governance/convergence malus, a debated thesis, a qualitative risk factor | -0.3 | concentration_detenteurs_communs > 20.0 | Azar, Schmalz & Tecu (2018), Anticompetitive Effects of Common Ownership, Journal of Finance 73(4) ; Mizruchi (1996), What Do Interlocks Do?, Annual Review of Sociology 22 |
ff-inities-form4 | net insider buying (Form 4) WEAKLY reinforces a positive conviction (management alignment), sales are barely informative, a noisy signal | +0.3 | achats_inities_net > 0.0 | SEC, Securities Exchange Act §16(a), Form 4 (SEC EDGAR) ; Lakonishok & Lee (2001), Are Insider Trades Informative?, Review of Financial Studies 14(1) |
ff-momentum-12-1 | moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 | momentum_12_1_pct > 0.0 | Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers, Journal of Finance 48(1):65-91 ; Daniel & Moskowitz (2016), Momentum crashes, JFE 122(2) |
ff-rmw-profitabilite | moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 | profitabilite_rmw > 15.0 | Fama & French (2015), A five-factor asset pricing model, JFE 116(1):1-22 ; corroboré par AQR QMJ (Asness et al. 2019) |
gp-dependance-appro-critique | penalizes an asset dependent on a single-sourced critical input in an at-risk zone with no substitute (Taiwan semiconductors, China rare earths, energy), friend-shoring/diversification reduces this risk | -1.0 | dependance_appro_critique vrai None | AIE/IEA, Critical Minerals & Energy Security (iea.org) ; UE, Critical Raw Materials Act (2024) ; USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries ; US CHIPS Act / EU Chips Act |
gp-exposition-ca-zone-risque | penalizes an asset with more than 30 % of revenue exposed to at-risk jurisdictions (sanctions, weak rule of law, tension), a concentration of political risk, the 30 % threshold needs calibration | -1.0 | exposition_ca_zone_risque_pct > 30.0 | IFRS 8 Operating Segments (IFRS Foundation) & ASC 280 (FASB) — information géographique ; 10-K item 1A (SEC) / URD (AMF) — facteurs de risque pays |
gp-risque-pays-wgi | penalizes an asset whose activity/assets/head office depend on a country with weak institutional quality (WGI: political stability, rule of law, corruption control) synthesized into risque_pays_score >= 3 | -1.5 | risque_pays_score >= 3.0 | Banque mondiale, Worldwide Governance Indicators (Kaufmann, Kraay & Mastruzzi ; info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi) ; World Development Indicators |
gp-sanctions-ofac | STRONGLY penalizes an asset with proven sanctions exposure (a listed issuer/linked to an SDN via the 50 % rule, or a sanctioned counterparty): binary risk of asset freeze/illiquidity, index exclusion, secondary extraterritorial risk | -4.0 | exposition_sanctions vrai None | OFAC / U.S. Department of the Treasury — SDN List, 50 Percent Rule, sanctions secondaires (ofac.treasury.gov) ; cadre légal IEEPA/TWEA |
gv-alignement-dirigeants | favors an aligned chief executive (significant personal ownership, pay tied to long-term performance) | +1.5 | dirigeant_alignement vrai None | SEC Reg S-K Item 402 + beneficial ownership (DEF 14A) ; Dodd-Frank §951 (Say-on-Pay) ; directive UE 2017/828 (SRD II) ; Code AFEP-MEDEF |
gv-conseil-independance-faible | penalizes weak governance (board with little independence, locked down by the chief executive, insufficient countervailing power) | -1.5 | gouvernance_score == faible | SEC Reg S-K Item 407 (proxy DEF 14A) ; Code AFEP-MEDEF (rév. 2022) ; référentiels de vote ISS / Glass Lewis |
gv-conseil-independance-forte | favors strong governance (independent board, split roles or lead director, independent committees) | +1.5 | gouvernance_score == forte | SEC Reg S-K Item 407 (proxy DEF 14A) ; Code AFEP-MEDEF (rév. 2022) ; Principes de gouvernance G20/OCDE 2023 |
gv-controverse-severite | penalizes a severe or recurring controversy ESTABLISHED by an official source (severity scale 0-5, penalty threshold >= 3) | -2.0 | controverse_severite >= 3 | SEC Litigation Releases / AAERs ; décisions AMF, DG COMP, DOJ/FCPA ; 10-K Item 3 « Legal Proceedings » & Item 1A « Risk Factors » ; URD (AMF) |
gv-double-classe | penalizes a structure with unequal voting rights (dual-class shares, control disconnected from capital, weakened minority protection) | -1.5 | actions_double_classe vrai None | Proxy DEF 14A (SEC) ; Council of Institutional Investors, principe « one share, one vote » ; Code de commerce FR art. L.225-123 |
gv-parties-liees | penalizes the presence of related-party transactions / opaque family control (risk of value transfer to the detriment of minority shareholders) | -1.5 | transactions_parties_liees vrai None | SEC Reg S-K Item 404 (DEF 14A) ; norme IAS 24 (IFRS) ; conventions réglementées Code de commerce FR art. L.225-38 et s. |
pc-concentration-cachee-cluster | penalises (size) a candidate that falls into the same correlation cluster as an existing portfolio line (hidden concentration) AND whose cluster is stable, remaining with the majority of its cluster in at least 70 % of bootstrap resamples | -0.5 | cluster_contient_detenue vrai None | Markowitz (1952) ; Mantegna (1999), Hierarchical structure in financial markets, EPJ B 11 ; Bongiorno & Challet (2020), Covariance matrix filtering with bootstrapped hierarchies, arXiv 2003.05807 ; clustering lien moyen ρ ≥ 0,35 à 120 j sur corrélation QIS, stabilité par 200 rééchantillons de jours en blocs de 5 (docs/correlation/METHODES.md §2) |
pc-concentration-cachee-rho | penalizes (size) a candidate whose maximum correlation over 250 days with an existing portfolio line reaches 0,6, as it duplicates a risk already held | -1.0 | rho_max_detenue >= 0.6 | Markowitz (1952), Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance 7(1) ; mesure scripts/correlation_marche.py (Ledoit-Wolf 250 j), docs/correlation/METHODES.md §6 |
pc-gain-diversification | favors (size) a candidate whose entry at the average portfolio weight would lower its volatility by at least 5 % | +1.0 | gain_diversification >= 0.05 | Choueifaty & Coignard (2008), Toward Maximum Diversification, JPM 35(1) ; docs/correlation/METHODES.md §6 |
pc-krach-momentum | when the security's local index is down over 24 months AND rebounding over 3 months (momentum-crash regime, Daniel-Moskowitz), the tailwind of a positive 12-1 month momentum (rule ff-momentum-12-1, +0.5) is halved by this -0.25 malus (×0.5 factor, hypothesis); without positive momentum the rule stays silent | -0.2 | krach_momentum vrai None | Daniel & Moskowitz (2016), Momentum crashes, JFE 122(2), 221-247 (NBER w20439) ; Barroso & Santa-Clara (2015), Momentum has its moments, JFE 116(1) ; feature datée `krach_momentum` de scripts/krach_momentum.py (indice de place, 504 et 63 séances, docs/correlation/METHODES.md §14) |
pc-regime-rupture | penalises (size, without direction) a value whose correlation with its market index is at least 0,25 stronger on down days (< −1 σ) than on up days (> +1 σ), so that its measured diversification disappears precisely when it matters | -0.5 | asym_rho >= 0.25 | Longin & Solnik (2001), Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets, Journal of Finance 56(2) ; Ang & Chen (2002), Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios, JFE 63 ; corrélation d'exceedance ρ⁻ (indice < −1 σ) − ρ⁺ (indice > +1 σ) sur 250 j, n ≥ 20 de chaque côté (docs/correlation/METHODES.md §3) ; la rupture de moyenne 60 j reste affichée |
sp-days-to-cover-eleve | penalizes a days-to-cover > 5 days (short interest / average daily volume, FINRA). Buyback constraint for short sellers | -0.5 | dtc > 5 | Hong, Li, Ni, Scheinkman & Yan (2016), Days to cover and stock returns, NBER WP 21166 |
sp-faible-short-volume-eleve | favors a stock that is very lightly shorted (si_rang_univers <= 0,2) AND heavily traded (20-session volume >= 1,3 times the median of the previous 120 sessions) | +0.5 | si_rang_univers <= 0.2 | Boehmer, Huszar & Jordan (2010), The good news in short interest, JFE 96(1):80-97 |
sp-risque-squeeze | flags uncertainty (reduced confidence, no direction) when days-to-cover > 8 AND the 1-month return > 15 %. Possible forced covering | -0.2 | dtc > 8 | Hong et al. (2016), NBER WP 21166 ; Boehmer, Jones & Zhang (2008), Which shorts are informed?, Journal of Finance 63(2) |
sp-short-interest-decile-superieur | penalizes a stock whose short interest relative to shares outstanding is in the top decile of the US universe at the same settlement (si_rang_univers >= 0,9). Durable negative information, to be read as a trend | -0.5 | si_rang_univers >= 0.9 | Boehmer, Huszar & Jordan (2010), The good news in short interest, JFE 96(1):80-97 ; Boehmer, Jones, Zhang & Zhang (2022), What do short sellers know? |
sp-volume-vendeur-anormal | moderately penalizes a short-sale share of volume (20 sessions) at z >= 2 versus its previous 120 sessions (FINRA Reg SHO) | -0.5 | svr_z >= 2 | Diether, Lee & Werner (2009), Short-sale strategies and return predictability, RFS 22(2):575-607 |
vq-altman-zscore | penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8) | -3.0 | altman_z < 1.8 | Edward I. Altman, The Journal of Finance (1968), « … Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy » (Z-Score) |
vq-beneish-mscore | penalizes a probable accounting manipulation profile (Beneish M-Score above the -1,78 threshold) | -3.0 | beneish_m > -1.78 | Messod D. Beneish, Financial Analysts Journal (1999), « The Detection of Earnings Manipulation » (M-Score) |
vq-buffett-moat-roic | favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 | roic > 15.0 | Berkshire Hathaway, lettres annuelles aux actionnaires (Buffett & Munger) |
vq-graham-defensif | favors an asset that passes Graham's defensive screen (liquidity, earnings stability, dividend, moderate valuation) | +1.0 | graham_defensive_pass vrai None | Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (1973), ch. 14 « Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor » |
vq-graham-marge-securite | favors a substantial margin of safety (price well below estimated intrinsic value) | +2.0 | margin_of_safety_pct >= 30.0 | Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (1949, éd. 1973), ch. 20 ; Security Analysis (Graham & Dodd, 1934) |
vq-graham-net-net | favors a net-net (price below 2/3 of net current asset value NCAV) | +1.0 | ncav_price_ratio < 0.67 | Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis (1934) ; The Intelligent Investor (1973), net-nets ; corroboré Oppenheimer, Financial Analysts Journal 1986 |
vq-greenblatt-magic-formula | favors a good combined Magic Formula rank (return on capital + earnings yield EBIT/EV) | +1.5 | magic_formula_rank <= 30 | Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats the Market (2005, éd. 2010) ; track record Gotham Capital rapporté dans l'ouvrage |
vq-novymarx-gross-profitability | favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 | gross_profitability > 0.33 | Robert Novy-Marx, Journal of Financial Economics (2013), « The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium » |
vq-piotroski-fscore | favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 | piotroski_f >= 7 | Joseph D. Piotroski, Journal of Accounting Research (2000), « Value Investing: … Separate Winners from Losers » (F-Score 9 critères) |
vq-sloan-accruals | penalizes degraded earnings quality (high accruals relative to assets, low persistence) | -1.5 | accruals_ratio > 0.1 | Richard G. Sloan, The Accounting Review (1996), « Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows… » (anomalie des accruals) |
act-adosser-horizon | favors matching a short-term project to a low-volatility asset (2008 lesson) | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t30115 |
act-allocation-bandes | target multi-pocket allocation + tolerance bands | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t30115 |
act-cloner | does not value mere cloning of a "super investor" (not a strategy in itself) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t309 |
act-cto-fiscalite | takes into account that the CTO no longer benefits from the holding-period allowance (less favorable tax treatment) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; impots.gouv.fr |
act-enveloppe-pea | favors PEA eligibility | +1.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; service-public.gouv.fr F2385 |
act-erreurs-debutant | penalizes classic beginner mistakes (overtrading, lack of a plan) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t188 |
act-holdings-decote | does NOT reward a large discount to ANR as if it were free value (structural discount) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t168 |
act-mesure-tri | encourages performance measurement with cash-flow-weighted TRI, not (value-invested)/invested | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t30115 |
act-psychologie | signals behavioral risk (the investor is their own worst enemy), documentary weight | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t188 |
act-qualite-fondamentale | favors an asset with measurable operational quality (margins, ROCE, good capital allocator) | +1.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t6663 / t20670 |
act-valorisation-ev | favors a reasoned valuation based on enterprise value (EV/EBIT), not just the PER | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (actions) ; t382 |
crypto-arnaques | heavily penalizes the scam context (No. 1 topic of AMF complaints) | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; AMF |
crypto-bitcoin-vs-altcoins | heavily penalizes altcoins (almost all underperform then die. BTC generates no cash flows) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; t28155 |
crypto-censure | nuances the censorship-resistance myth (freezable centralized stablecoins), documentary weight | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; t32141 |
crypto-fiscalite | factors in crypto tax friction (PFU 31,4 %, form 3916-bis, DAC8) as a slight penalty | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; impots.gouv.fr (actifs numériques) |
crypto-mica | takes into account the regulatory risk of the MiCA / end of PSAN transition, documentary weight | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; MiCA UE |
crypto-securite | values custody hygiene (cold wallet, 2FA, whitelist, multi-provider), documentary weight | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; t2894 |
crypto-volatilite-levier | penalizes volatility amplified by leverage and timing on predictions/announcements (buy the rumor) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (cryptoactifs) ; t32752 |
dette-verdicts-valides | official resolved verdicts (lombard, PEA-eligible synthetic ETF, IS holding, estate tax situs, PUMA): favors a compliant and informed structure | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (dette-validation-resolue) ; t30869 / question Sénat qSEQ260508783 / art. 209-0 A CGI |
eco-allocation-cible | asset allocation takes precedence over selection | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t9713 |
eco-cash-phase | 100 % invested + DCA during accumulation, cash sleeve during the consumption phase | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t382 |
eco-gestion-passive | penalizes active management (a majority of managers underperform after fees) while noting the debated risks of ETFs | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; S&P Dow Jones SPIVA Europe |
eco-inflation-actifs-reels | favors real assets/fixed-rate debt as long-term inflation protection (without betting on the regime) | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t5339 |
eco-market-timing | penalizes market timing (exiting/re-entering based on overall valuation underperforms) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t3677 |
eco-politique-monetaire | contextualizes the monetary policy regime (rates, QE), documentary weight | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t7109 |
eco-prime-de-risque | favors equity exposure for the long-term risk premium (correcting for survivorship bias/taxation) | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (economie) ; t9713 |
fis-assurance-vie | values the AV for tax efficiency after 8 years and estate transfer (990 I / 757 B) | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; impots.gouv.fr / CGI 990 I |
fis-cto | CTO: capital gains taxed as they arise, losses carried forward 10 years (less efficient than the PEA) | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; impots.gouv.fr |
fis-dividendes | 40 % allowance only under the standard scale, foreign withholding tax not neutralized by the PEA | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; impots.gouv.fr |
fis-expatriation | flags the exit tax and the strict conditions for purging capital gains on expatriation, documentary weight | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; impots.gouv.fr (exit tax) |
fis-holding-is | penalizes over-optimization via an IS holding for a securities portfolio (double taxation on exit) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; CGI IS |
fis-hors-ue | takes into account the new CRD VI framework for banking services outside the EU, documentary weight | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; ordonnance 2026-255 |
fis-ps-pfu | integrates PS 18,6 % + PFU 31,4 % (2026) as tax friction, with the AV remaining at 17,2 % | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; impots.gouv.fr |
fis-transmission | values estate transfer levers (gifts 100 k€/15 years, ownership split, timber/GFA, Dutreil) | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (fiscalite) ; CGI art. 669 / 793 |
fon-decote-anr | does not treat a discount to ANR as free value (mechanism and trap) | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-inflation | distinguishes residential vs triple net under high inflation. Documentation weight | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-krach | takes into account the strongly pro-cyclical behavior in a crash. Documentation weight | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-metriques | values the use of the recurring analysis toolbox (FFO/AFFO, LTV, occupancy) | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-narratifs | penalizes getting ahead of the pros on macro narratives that are already priced in | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-qualite | favors quality (IG debt rating, blue-REIT, high occupancy rate) | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-rendement-piege | penalizes the big dividend trap (high yield = high risk) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-roc-us | tax restatement of Return of Capital on US REIT dividends. Documentation weight | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-sensibilite-taux | factors in rate sensitivity as the n°1 determinant of the share price (price = rent / cap. Rate) | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-siic-regime | SIIC regime (IS exemption in exchange for distribution). The SIIC+PEA trick has been obsolete since 2011. Documentation weight | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
fon-total-return | takes into account the disappointing total return of French real estate companies over 10 years | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (foncieres-cotees) ; t5436 |
imm-diagnostic | values the technical inspection and the review of the mandatory diagnostics. Documentation weight | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
imm-dpe-reno | penalizes the DPE energy-sieve risk and renovation traps (property deficit "poisoned gift", erratic subsidies) | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; service-public.fr (DPE) |
imm-gestion-locative | values professional rental management and rigorous lease/deposit formalism | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
imm-illiquidite | penalizes extreme illiquidity (EHPAD managed real estate, "unlettable" asset with negative value) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
imm-levier-credit | credit leverage effect (maximum duration supported by the cash-flow, capped by HCSF) | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 / HCSF |
imm-rentabilite | reasons on a net-net yield basis, incorporating the opportunity cost of capital | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
imm-selection-decote | favors a discount at entry. The more a property meets the "fundamentals" criteria, the more the yield falls | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
imm-timing | no good market timing, only good deals (do not trust the media "now is the time") | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (immobilier) ; t31644 |
mon-cat | factors in the trade-off of a CAT (guaranteed rate VERSUS locked liquidity, penalties/notice period, misleading progressive rate) | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; t33359 |
mon-fgdr-vigilance | deposit-guarantee vigilance: FGDR 100 k€ per institution. Tokenized funds/super savings accounts do NOT have this guarantee | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; FGDR |
mon-fonds-euros | values the euro fund (guaranteed capital, ratchet effect) while capping the balance per insurer (FGAP 70 k€) | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; t28090 |
mon-fonds-monetaire | values a low-fee money-market fund (€STR replica) to earn a return on the cash held in a PEA | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; t33359 |
mon-livrets | favors the tax-exempt liquid base (Livret A/LDDS/LEP) filled first for precautionary savings | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; service-public.fr |
mon-no-free-lunch | no free lunch: no excess return without risk. "Immediate" availability ≠ contractual. Cooperative shares = warning signal | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; t33359 |
mon-obligataire-court | money-market substitute via a very short IG bond ETF. The EUR hedge cancels the USD rate spread | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (monetaire) ; t33359 |
obl-etf-echeance | distinguishes a rolling ETF (never immunized) vs a fixed-maturity ETF (iBonds) which becomes immunized | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-fiscalite-coupons | coupons taxed at the PFU without the 40 % allowance and not PEA-eligible. Tax friction | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; impots.gouv.fr |
obl-inflation | index-linked bonds: the principal is indexed (protects against inflation) but NOT against rising rates | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-mecanique-taux | factors in interest-rate risk (price moves inversely to rates, duration = sensitivity, non-diversifiable rate risk) | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-petites-coupures | small denominations are rare in EUR: diversify into small lots to absorb a default | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-refuge | favors quality government bonds as a safe haven (negative correlation with equities) | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
obl-subordonnee | penalizes subordinated/hybrid/AT1/TP debt (low seniority, extension risk, bail-in, discretionary coupon) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (obligations) ; t23225 |
opt-credit | penalizes borrowing at a rate > the savings rate (comparison trap) | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (optimisation-depenses) ; t3543 |
opt-frais-recurrents | values the reduction of recurring fees (cost of ownership, competitive tendering, durable quality/robustness) | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (optimisation-depenses) ; t3543 |
opt-taux-epargne | values a high savings rate (save first, neutralize lifestyle creep, consumption is taxed immediately) | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (optimisation-depenses) ; t3543 |
per-anticipe | early withdrawal limited to 6 cases, RP taxation ≠ accidents of life, low liquidity | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (per) ; impots.gouv.fr (PER) |
per-deduction-entree | entry benefit = contribution × TMI, cap of 10 % of income (carry-forward possible), values the deduction | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (per) ; impots.gouv.fr (PER) |
per-pari-tmi | the PER is a bet on the gap between entry and exit TMI | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (per) ; impots.gouv.fr (PER) |
per-sortie | exit taxation (capital at the income tax scale + gains PFU, annuity RVTG+PS), friction on exit | -0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (per) ; impots.gouv.fr (PER) |
per-transmission | values the transmission leverage of the PER assurance (990 I before age 70, 757 B after) | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (per) ; CGI 990 I / 757 B |
pf-comportement | penalizes behavioral risk (emotions) and excess turnover, benchmark against an index | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; t1619 / t25575 |
pf-dca | values regular investing (DCA) and reinforcement during downturns | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; t26998 |
pf-epargne-precaution | values a liquid precautionary reserve built BEFORE investing in the stock market | +0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; t8244 |
pf-indiciel-frais | favors simple index management and minimization of fees (the only certain parameter) | -1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; S&P Dow Jones SPIVA Europe / t4614 |
pf-pea | PEA as the long-term core (cap of 150 k€) | +1.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; service-public.gouv.fr F2385 |
pf-scpi-buyhold | SCPI/real estate company entry fees impose a long buy & hold to amortize them | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (portefeuille) ; t11043 |
rf-agrement-usurpation | an authorization/absence from a blacklist is NOT a guarantee, beware of the impersonation of a regulated firm | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF/ACPR |
rf-demarchage | penalizes cold calling (dedicated prefixes + inbound solicitation) | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
rf-endorsement | penalizes endorsement by celebrity/influencer/public figure | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
rf-fraude-fiscale | penalizes any tax confidentiality argument / incentive to defraud the tax authority | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
rf-immo-defisc | penalizes tax-break real estate signed 'on trust' through delegation | -2.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
rf-ponzi | penalizes Ponzi/kiting mechanics + network recruitment (MLM) | -4.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (pieges-a-eviter) ; AMF |
scpi-fiscalite | SCPI income = property income (TMI + 17,2 % PS), micro-foncier not possible alone, interest deductible in PP only | -0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (scpi-opci) ; impots.gouv.fr |
scpi-frais-souscription | penalizes the high subscription commission (~8-12 %), the "0 %" moves the fees and creates a liquidity risk | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (scpi-opci) ; t30695 |
scpi-prix-part | reads the regulatory unit price rule (variable-capital SCPI), documentation weight | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (scpi-opci) ; AMF |
scpi-selection | a 1-year return does not qualify a good SCPI, diversify "père de famille" + a ladle of young ones | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (scpi-opci) ; t30695 |
vr-actions-oblig | equities vs bonds trade-off over the long term | +1.0 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
vr-dca-out | in the consumption phase, DCA-out rather than lump-sum-out | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
vr-fire | FIRE benchmarks (Lean/Chubby/Fat) adapted to France, documentation weight | +0.2 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
vr-frugalite | spending frugality/flexibility = the only truly controllable lever | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
vr-illusion-trading | penalizes the illusion of "living off trading" with insufficient capital | -0.5 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
vr-sequence-buckets | values the mitigation of sequence risk via buckets/safety cushion | +0.3 | documentary | forum investisseurs-heureux.fr (vivre-rentier) ; t20670 |
cv-moat-durabilite | safeguard, require a reading of the TREND of the advantage (widening / stable / eroding), a well rated but threatened static moat sees its confidence lowered | +0.5 | documentary | Morningstar, Moat Trend Rating ; Pat Dorsey, The Little Book That Builds Wealth (2008), « Eroding Moats » ; dynamique des cinq forces (Porter, 1980) |
cv-porter-cinq-forces | guardrail, explicitly map the five forces of the sector (suppliers, buyers, entrants, substitutes, rivalry) and their trajectory before concluding on the sustainability of profitability | +1.0 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, « How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy », Harvard Business Review (1979) ; Competitive Strategy (Free Press, 1980), ch. 1 ; révision HBR (2008) |
cv-porter-entrants-barrieres | guardrail, favors (confidence) high and identifiable barriers to entry (scale, patents, brand, switching costs, regulation), their absence makes any advantage transitory | +1.0 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy (1980), « Threat of Entry / Entry Barriers » ; Joe S. Bain, Barriers to New Competition (Harvard U. Press, 1956) |
cv-porter-pouvoir-clients | guardrail, penalizes (confidence) dependence on concentrated buyers / an undifferentiated product with low switching costs | -0.5 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy (1980), « Bargaining Power of Buyers » ; Competitive Advantage (1985) |
cv-porter-pouvoir-fournisseurs | guardrail, penalizes (confidence) an upstream that is concentrated, non-substitutable or under supply strain, unless pass-through to downstream prices is possible | -0.5 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy (1980), « Bargaining Power of Suppliers » ; Competitive Advantage (Free Press, 1985) |
cv-porter-rivalite | guardrail, penalizes (confidence) sectors with destructive rivalry (commoditized, overcapacity, zero growth, high exit barriers) | -0.5 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy (1980), « Rivalry Among Existing Competitors » |
cv-porter-substituts | guardrail, penalizes (confidence) a sector exposed to substitutes whose price/performance ratio improves fast (moat risk outside the intra-sector perimeter) | -0.5 | documentary | Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy (1980), « Pressure from Substitute Products » ; HBR (2008) |
cm-dalio-parite-risque | safeguard, diversify by risk ENGINE (uncorrelated factors), not by number of positions, the leverage of the institutional version is excluded (doctrine 2035) | +0.5 | documentary | Ray Dalio / Bridgewater, The All Weather Story (2012) ; Qian, Risk Parity Portfolios (2005) |
cm-fisher-qualite-durable | favors durable quality growth (sustainable margins, productive R&D, management integrity), penalizes opacity | +1.0 | documentary | Philip A. Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958), ch. 3 The Fifteen Points |
cm-fisher-scuttlebutt | safeguard, require a convergent body of qualitative evidence (customers, suppliers, competitors) before conviction, absence of investigation lowers confidence | +0.5 | documentary | Philip A. Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958), ch. 2 What Scuttlebutt Can Do |
cm-kelly-fractionne | safeguard, size using FRACTIONAL Kelly (½-¼), cap the weight of a position, oversizing destroys capital even with a real edge | +0.5 | documentary | J. L. Kelly Jr., Bell System Technical Journal (1956) ; Edward O. Thorp, A Man for All Markets (2017) |
cm-lynch-cercle-competence | safeguard, only enter on a thesis that is understandable and articulable (circle of competence), familiarity alone is not an edge | +0.5 | documentary | Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street (1989), The Two-Minute Drill ; Buffett, cercle de compétence (Berkshire 1996) |
cm-marks-cycle-risque | safeguard, weight defensively at end of cycle/euphoria, priority is risk control (not losing) ahead of return | -0.5 | documentary | Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing (2011), Being Attentive to Cycles ; Mastering the Market Cycle (2018) |
cm-marks-second-niveau | safeguard, require an explicit divergence from the market thesis (DIVERGENCES), a purely consensus thesis is not an edge | +0.5 | documentary | Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing (2011), ch. 1 Second-Level Thinking ; mémos Oaktree |
ff-13d-13g-activisme | a recent 13D = a governance catalyst to watch (especially value / discounted holding), BUT the activist has own horizon/interests ≠ long term (documentary) | +0.3 | documentary | SEC, Securities Exchange Act §13(d)/§13(g), Schedules 13D/13G (SEC EDGAR, amendement 2023) ; Brav, Jiang, Partnoy & Thomas (2008), Journal of Finance 63(4) |
ff-13f-lecture-flux | 13F filings = a source of IDEAS, never a buy signal: 45 j delay, long-only, inefficient cloning (hold price ≠ purchase price), survivorship bias, misaligned interests (documentary) | +0.2 | documentary | SEC, Securities Exchange Act §13(f), Form 13F & FAQ (sec.gov, SEC EDGAR) ; forum-ih/actions.md §8 |
ff-aqr-qmj-diversification | favor quality (profitability + balance sheet safety) and DIVERSIFY weakly correlated factors (value+momentum) rather than a single bet (documentary, double counting risk) | +0.5 | documentary | Asness, Frazzini & Pedersen (2019), Quality Minus Junk, Review of Accounting Studies 24 ; Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen (2013), Value and Momentum Everywhere, Journal of Finance 68(3) |
ff-carhart-4-facteurs | 4-factor attribution framework (+ momentum): a manager's alpha is often low-cost factor beta, do not pay for beta (documentary) | +0.3 | documentary | Carhart (1997), On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance, Journal of Finance 52(1):57-82 ; Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) |
ff-facteurs-3-fama-french | framework of market/size (SMB)/value (HML) premiums: a risk premium, not a free lunch, value/small tilt defensible but SMB contested since ~2000 (documentary) | +0.5 | documentary | Fama & French (1993), Common risk factors, Journal of Financial Economics 33(1):3-56 ; Kenneth French Data Library (Dartmouth) |
gp-accords-omc-tarifs | a framework for reading the sector impact of a tariff/quota/export control shock (importer margins, exporter competitiveness), a weakened WTO and growing fragmentation, an ambiguous effect, no bet on a dated negotiation (documentary) | -0.3 | documentary | OMC/WTO — accords GATT/GATS, Tariff Download Facility, règlement des différends (wto.org) ; accords régionaux (EUR-Lex, USMCA, RCEP) ; CNUCED (barrières NTB) |
gp-conflits-impact-sectoriel | faced with a tension, re-read the EXPOSURE (energy, defense, transport/ insurance, critical dependencies) and diversification, not a directional bet: impact quickly priced in and non-persistent (documentary, consistent with no-timing) | -0.3 | documentary | FMI, World Economic Outlook (fragmentation) & GFSR (imf.org) ; AIE (énergie) ; SIPRI (dépenses militaires, sipri.org) ; OTAN (objectif de défense >= 2 % du PIB) |
gp-conventions-fiscales-double-imposition | favors, at equal profile, an asset domicile whose treaty cuts withholding tax and avoids estate risk (cross-check fis-estate-tax-us, ETF domicile IE), complements the tax rating (documentary) | +0.3 | documentary | OCDE, Modèle de convention fiscale concernant le revenu et la fortune (oecd.org) ; conventions bilatérales ; Cadre inclusif BEPS & Pilier 2 (impôt minimum 15 %) |
gp-expropriation-controle-capitaux | discounts an asset whose productive assets/flows are captive to a jurisdiction at risk of expropriation or capital controls (non-repatriation), exposure depends on the structure (documentary, qualitative) | -0.5 | documentary | MIGA, Political Risk Insurance (miga.org, Banque mondiale) ; CNUCED, Investment Policy Hub & base des TBI (unctad.org) ; ICSID/CIRDI |
gp-notation-souveraine | an issuer in speculative sovereign category or under an IMF program increases country risk (sovereign ceiling), agencies are procyclical/lagged, cross-check with WGI (documentary) | -0.3 | documentary | S&P / Moody's / Fitch Sovereign Rating Methodology (publiques) ; FMI, consultations Article IV & Global Financial Stability Report (imf.org) ; BRI |
gp-sanctions-onu | inclusion on the UN Consolidated List = a universal screening baseline (first filter), but UN sanctions are narrower (veto): their absence does not mean absence of OFAC/EU risk (documentary) | -0.5 | documentary | ONU, Security Council Consolidated List & comités de sanctions au titre du Chapitre VII (un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions) ; transposées UE (EUR-Lex) & OFAC |
gp-sanctions-ue | EU restrictive measures (CFSP decisions + directly applicable regulations) are binding on an FR/EU resident, lists diverge from OFAC, check both regimes + UN (documentary, name-based) | -0.5 | documentary | EUR-Lex, règlements de mesures restrictives (eur-lex.europa.eu) ; EU Sanctions Map (sanctionsmap.eu) ; EU Financial Sanctions Database (Commission) |
gv-cartographie-entite | favors (documentary) a reproducible and auditable entity file, a checklist running from identifiers to scope to executives to history, with each item sourced and dated | +0.5 | documentary | GLEIF / LEI (ISO 17442) ; SEC EDGAR (CIK) ; registres INPI-RNE, Infogreffe-RCS, INSEE SIRENE, UK Companies House |
gv-integrite-management | penalizes (documentary) a dated and sourced cluster of management red flags (restatements, unexplained CFO/auditor departure, resignation over disagreement), as accounting quantification remains the responsibility of the vq- rules | -1.0 | documentary | SEC Form 8-K Item 4.01 (auditeur), 4.02 (restatement), 5.02 (départs) ; croise le forensique comptable de rules-experts-value.yaml (Beneish/Sloan/Altman) |
pc-anomalie-volume | guardrail, a volume ≥ 2,5× the 60-day median or a volatility jump (|z| ≥ 2,5) triggers an alert and a review, never a score point | -0.5 | documentary | Karpoff (1987), The Relation Between Price Changes and Trading Volume, JFQA 22(1) |
pc-beta-r2-faible | guardrail, a beta whose R² against the index is below 0,1 is not used to size a line | -0.5 | documentary | Sharpe (1964), Capital Asset Prices, Journal of Finance 19(3) ; R² signalé sous 0,1 (docs/correlation/METHODES.md §4) |
pc-contribution-risque | guardrail, an existing line whose contribution to risk exceeds 1,3 times its weight is oversized for the risk it adds (size signal) | -0.5 | documentary | Maillard, Roncalli & Teïletche (2010), JPM 36(4) ; contribution au risque par ligne dans l'onglet Corrélations (docs/correlation/METHODES.md §6) |
pc-multiplicite-tests | guardrail, no feature-to-return link from the cross-section enters a scored rule without multiple-testing correction AND confirmation over a second period, with the cross-section remaining descriptive | +0.5 | documentary | Harvey, Liu & Zhu (2016), … and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns, RFS 29(1) ; Benjamini & Hochberg (1995), JRSS B 57(1) |
pc-reequilibrage-annuel | garde-fou, aucune réduction ni renforcement pour motif de TAILLE si moins de 12 mois depuis le dernier mouvement sur la ligne et dérive de poids < 5 points ; le coût du mouvement (TTF 0,4 % si applicable, demi-spread estimé, courtage) est comparé au gain de variance avant tout arbitrage de poids | -0.5 | documentary | Zhang, Ahluwalia, Ying, Rabinovich & Geysen (2022), Rational rebalancing, Vanguard Research ; Hsieh, Gubner & Barmish (2018) arXiv:1807.05265 ; Hsieh & Wong (2023) arXiv:2301.02754 ; coût mesuré par scripts/cout_mouvement.py (docs/correlation/METHODES.md §12) |
sp-short-interest-agrege | informational. The aggregated short interest of the US universe (weighted median, series SI_AGREGE_US), when elevated (z >= 1 versus 24 settlements), enters the calculated macro regime as the "positioning" component (-0,05 on the bullish weighting). Never a stock-level signal | -0.5 | documentary | Rapach, Ringgenberg & Zhou (2016), Short interest and aggregate stock returns, JFE 121(1):46-65 |
vq-buffett-capital-allocation | favors (documentary) disciplined capital allocation and long-term management/shareholder alignment | +1.0 | documentary | Berkshire Hathaway, lettres annuelles ; An Owner's Manual (Berkshire) |
vq-greenwald-epv | favors (documentary) a valuation by asset value + earnings power (EPV), growth credited only if there is a franchise | +0.5 | documentary | Bruce Greenwald et al., Value Investing — From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (2001, 2ᵉ éd. 2020) |
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