MMR 2035FR

Arkema SA (AKE.PA): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026

Published on · Updated on · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : Euronext Paris · Sector : Process Industries

In short

The signal is weak with a score of -2,5. The thesis relies on the strength of the second quarter 2026 and the share buyback program, but financial leverage and the macroeconomic context limit progress.

Current signal
weak (vote 2/3)
Deterministic score
-2.5 → signal expected by the scale : no signal (September 10, 2026)
Layers
fundamentals : neutral, price : positive, risks : positive

Triggered rules

RuleWeight
penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8)-3.0
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger+0.5

Thesis

Arkema reports solid results in the second quarter 2026 with an EBITDA increase of 7,4 % and a margin of 16,1 %. The analyst consensus is bullish with 7 recommendations out of 9. The current price of 59,10 EUR is below the average target of 66,31 EUR. The share buyback program is active. Net debt to EBITDA leverage stands at 2,0x. The macroeconomic regime penalizes export and automotive sectors.

Bull case

Second quarter 2026 results are positive. EBITDA reaches 391 M EUR and the margin rises to 16,1 %. The share buyback is in progress with 33 450 shares acquired at 55,40 EUR on 21/08/2026. The analyst consensus is mostly bullish. Short interest is near zero. The price has increased by 13,52 % since 01/01/2026.

Bear case

Net debt and hybrid obligations to EBITDA leverage reaches 2,0x in the first quarter 2026. The first half 2026 is downgraded with revenue down 3,5 % and a margin of 15,1 %. The expansion macroeconomic regime penalizes exports and automotive. Sensitivity to BCE rates at 2,25 % weighs on valuation. Market complacency measured by the VIX9D/VIX3M ratio at 11,97/17,61 exposes the value to a sentiment shock.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario has a probability of 40 % with a target of 66,31 EUR or +12 %. The central scenario has a probability of 40 % with stability at 59,10 EUR supported by the buyback. The bearish scenario has a probability of 20 % with a maximum loss of -20 % or 47 EUR.

Risks

The main risk lies in high financial leverage. The unfavorable macroeconomic context weighs on export and automotive sectors. Sensitivity to BCE policy rates is a pressure factor. Market complacency can reverse abruptly. The first half 2026 downgrade shows a loss of operational momentum.

Upcoming catalysts

DateDescription
Q3 2026 results and objectives update
glasstec Düsseldorf trade fair

Signal history (last 12 months)

DateSignalNew fact
weak (2/3)Unchanged. Price at 59,10 EUR on 07/09/2026. Deterministic signal at -1,00. Same invalidations and timing as 02/09/2026.
weak (3/3)Unchanged.
weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What is the value score?

The score stands at -2,5. The vote is 2/3. The signal is classified as weak. This note reflects the balance between solid second quarter results and financial leverage constraints. The macroeconomic context also weighs on valuation.

What is the current price level?

The price stands at 59,10 EUR on 07/09/2026. This level is below the average analyst target set at 66,31 EUR. It remains above the share buyback zone located at 55,40 EUR. The increase since the start of the year reaches 13,52 %.

What are the second quarter 2026 results?

EBITDA increases by 7,4 % to reach 391 M EUR. The margin rises to 16,1 %. These figures show an improvement in operating profitability. They contrast with the downgrade observed in the first half 2026 where revenue falls by 3,5 %.

What is the company debt level?

Net debt and hybrid obligations to EBITDA leverage stands at 2,0x in the first quarter 2026. This leverage level is a risk factor. It limits investment capacity and increases interest rate sensitivity in a BCE context of 2,25 %.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

  • This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
  • Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
  • Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 01:22 (UTC).
  • Interests: no position in the stock analysed (AKE.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
  • This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
  • Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
  • Analysis horizon: 2035.

See also