Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026
In short
The MODERATE signal reflects a balance between the dynamics of free cash flow and rate sensitivity. The main reason lies in the proximity of the analyst consensus to the price, which limits short-term upside potential.
- Current signal
- moderate (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- -1.5 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8) | -3.0 |
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Apollo combines growth in FCF per share, diversification across credit, real estate and retirement, and a valuation discount based on a TTM P/E of 12 and a PEG of 0.27. The expanding macro regime supports the sector, but the penalty on rate-sensitive assets and the complacency of the derivatives market restrict the margin of progression. The analyst consensus remains close to the price, which reduces immediate upside.
Bull case
FCF per share grows by 25% to reach 2.61 USD. Assets under management reach 1,023 Bn$ with positive net inflows. Insider purchases take place between 21.88 and 22.30 USD in July 2026. The TTM P/E of 12 sits below the market P/E of 13.56, an indication of a recent acceleration in earnings.
Bear case
Rate sensitivity remains high, with a US 10-2 slope at +0.41 pt and a Fed funds rate at 3.63%, which penalizes credit. The risk regime stays in complacency, with a VIX9D/VIX3M slope at -32% and a put/call at 0.76 z -1.39. The analyst consensus of 140.22 USD offers only 4.9% of upside above the price. A class action targets the chief executive, with a likely expiration on 31/08/2026 but unconfirmed.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario (40%) targets 155 USD, i.e. +15%. The central scenario (45%) anticipates a range of 135 to 140 USD, i.e. +2 to 5%. The bearish scenario (15%) projects 115 USD, i.e. -14%.
Risks
Rate sensitivity and derivatives market complacency constitute the main structural risks. The proximity of the consensus to the price limits the short-term revaluation. The class action lawsuit against the chief executive adds unresolved uncertainty.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 4.47 %
- Days to cover
- 5.05
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| moderate (3/3) | Personal analysis, without the status of investment advice. | |
| moderate (3/3) | not published |
Frequently asked questions
What does the MODERATE signal mean in this analysis?
The MODERATE signal reflects a balance between several forces. The growth in free cash flow and the acceleration of earnings sustain the thesis. The proximity of the consensus to the price and the penalty on rate-sensitive assets restrict the short-term margin of progression. The unanimous 3/3 vote confirms the stability of the diagnosis. No strong directional movement emerges from the available data. Upside depends on the evolution of the rate regime and the derivatives market.
Why does the short-term potential appear limited?
The analyst consensus reaches 140.22 USD for a price close to it, i.e. 4.9% of upside. This gap reduces the capacity for immediate revaluation despite the recent acceleration in earnings. The TTM P/E of 12 and the PEG of 0.27 nevertheless reflect an attractive relative valuation. Upside therefore depends mainly on a revision of the consensus or an easing of policy rates.
What elements justify the rate sensitivity of the stock?
Apollo's asset structure relies heavily on credit, a segment penalized by the monetary configuration. The US 10-2 slope at +0.41 pt and the Fed funds rate at 3.63% define a restrictive environment. Derivatives market complacency, measured by the VIX9D/VIX3M slope at -32% and the put/call at 0.76 z -1.39, does not provide an adequate hedging signal. These macro-financial conditions constitute the main drag on performance.
What should be known about insider share purchases?
Insider purchases take place between 21.88 and 22.30 USD in July 2026. These transactions occur during a period of potential stress and signal internal confidence. However, these old price levels do not reflect the current configuration of the price. They constitute a behavioral indicator rather than an immediate operational benchmark.
What are the implications of the class action lawsuit?
A class action targets the chief executive with a likely expiration on 31/08/2026, but unconfirmed. This proceeding introduces unresolved regulatory uncertainty. Depending on the outcome, the perception of governance risk may evolve. The absence of official confirmation leaves the question pending in the analysis.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (SEC · 8-K)
- — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K/A)
- — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 7, 2026 at 07:08 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (APO) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: American Express Company (AXP)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology