Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 21:27 · Updated on September 3, 2026 at 22:52 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Distribution Services

In short

The signal shown for Arrow Electronics remains faible (vote 3/3, score of 1,5). The main reason lies in a six-month advance achieved mostly outside regular trading hours and in a price that appears to have already priced in the earnings rebound.

Current signal: weak (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: +1.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : neutral, risks : neutral

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG	+1.0
moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent	-0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Arrow Electronics is benefiting from the recovery in the component cycle. T2 2026 far exceeds expectations and the forecasts for T3 sit above the consensus. The stock nevertheless appears to have priced in a large part of this rebound. Its recent advance was built outside regular trading hours and the profile remains that of a cyclical distributor with thin margins, led on an interim basis. The signal therefore remains faible despite the quality of the latest releases.

Bull case

T2 2026, published on 06/08, shows revenue of 10,0 Md USD, up 32 %, non-GAAP EPS of 5,45 USD, up 124 %, and components activity up 39 %. Forecasts for T3 stand between 4,83 and 5,03 USD, against a consensus of 4,50 USD. The valuation remains moderate for an asset in recovery, with an EV/EBITDA of ~8,6 as of 24/08 and a trailing PER of ~14,6. The Beneish M-Score, at -2,13, raises no accounting concern.

Bear case

Cash conversion remains weak, with 318 M USD of operating cash flow in T2 for an EPS of 5,45 USD. The PER rose from about 10 to 14,6 in eight months and the six-month advance came in at +38,6 % outside regular trading hours versus +1,9 % during regular trading hours, a signature of non-institutional flows. The consensus shows a median hold recommendation, with about 3 % of median upside. Management is run on an interim basis and tariffs weigh on the distribution model.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario, weighted at about 30 %, assumes the recapture of the 50-session moving average and then validation of the most favorable analyst estimates. The central scenario, weighted at about 45 %, describes a consolidation of the price until the T3 results, scheduled for early November. The bearish scenario, weighted at about 25 %, corresponds to a pullback toward the zone of the 200-session moving average.

Risks

The stock has a beta of 1,39, which amplifies its sensitivity to market swings. The thin-margin distributor model remains exposed to component cyclicality and to tariffs. Management is run on an interim basis, which adds governance uncertainty. A sustained close below the 200-session moving average would invalidate the thesis of a cyclical recovery.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 2.49 %
Days to cover: 1.86
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
September 30, 2026	Q3 FY2026 book-to-bill ratio (semi-cycle indicator)

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 3, 2026	weak (3/3)	No dated new development since the verdict of 01/09/2026. The close on 02/09 at 208,13 USD (+1,04 %) remains in the consolidation zone, with no new results, forecasts or regulatory changes. The internal data sources marked as potentially outdated do not constitute a new development.
September 1, 2026	weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What results did Arrow Electronics report for the second quarter of 2026?

T2 2026, published on 06/08, shows revenue of 10,0 Md USD, up 32 %, non-GAAP EPS of 5,45 USD, up 124 %, and components activity up 39 %. Forecasts for T3 lie between 4,83 and 5,03 USD, against a consensus of 4,50 USD.

Why does the signal remain faible despite results above expectations?

The stock's six-month advance came in at +38,6 % outside regular trading hours versus +1,9 % during regular trading hours, a signature of non-institutional flows. The PER rose from about 10 to 14,6 in eight months and cash conversion remains weak, with 318 M USD of operating cash flow in T2. Management is also run on an interim basis.

Where does the stock's valuation stand?

The valuation remains moderate for an asset in recovery: the EV/EBITDA comes out at ~8,6 as of 24/08 and the trailing PER at ~14,6. The Beneish M-Score, at -2,13, raises no concern about accounting quality. The consensus nevertheless shows a median hold recommendation and about 3 % of median upside, which suggests a price close to market expectations.

What are the main risks identified?

The stock has a beta of 1,39, which amplifies its reaction to market swings. The thin-margin distribution model remains exposed to the component cycle and to tariffs. Management is run on an interim basis and a sustained close below the 200-session moving average would invalidate the recovery thesis.

Has any new development occurred since the previous verdict?

No. No dated new development has appeared since the verdict of 01/09/2026. The close on 02/09 at 208,13 USD, up 1,04 %, remains in the consolidation zone, with no release of results, forecasts or regulatory changes. The internal items flagged as potentially outdated do not constitute a new development.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 6, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Com… (SEC · 8-K)
August 6, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
May 13, 2026 — 5.03 Amendments to Articles of Incorporation or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statemen… (SEC · 8-K)
May 7, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 22:52 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (ARW) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.