ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS): analysis and signal as of September 10, 2026
In short
The signal published on 2026-09-10 for ASML Holding is strong (vote 3/3, score of 5,0). It rests mainly on the 2026 guidance raised to 43-45 Md EUR and on the EUV monopoly in mass production, supported by a bullish EXPANSION regime of 0,60 that favours semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
- Current signal
- strong (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +5.0 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 12, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : neutral, risks : positive, fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
ASML retains its monopoly on EUV lithography for mass production and 2026 guidance raised to 43-45 Md EUR, with a third quarter expected at 11-12 Md EUR and a gross margin of 55-57 %. A share repurchase programme of 12 Md EUR runs over 2026-2028. These elements underpin the strong signal within a bullish EXPANSION regime of 0,60, favourable to the semiconductor and artificial intelligence segment. The marked correlation with STMPA.PA (0,52) reflects a sector concentration that does not undermine the fundamental reading.
Bull case
The 2026 guidance is raised to 43-45 Md EUR, with a third quarter expected at 11-12 Md EUR and a gross margin of 55-57 %. Activity is accelerating sequentially: 8,8, then 9,3, then 11-12 Md EUR expected. The EUV HVM monopoly forms a defensive advantage. The quality ratings support the reading: Buffett moat/ROIC +2,0, Piotroski F-Score +1,5, Novy-Marx +1,0, RMW profitability +0,5. The 12 Md EUR repurchase programme over 2026-2028 and the interim dividend of 1,88 EUR per share, payable on 05/08/2026 and detached on 27/07/2026, complete the picture. No Beneish accounting alert is detected, and the bullish EXPANSION regime of 0,60 remains favourable to the semis and AI segment.
Bear case
The price of 1474,20 EUR stands about 22 % above consensus expectations according to MarketBeat, which constitutes a caution signal on the fundamental level. The two-year rise rests almost entirely on the morning opening gap, with a ratio of 2,2 between the change at the open and the change during the session. This pattern points to fragile retail investor flow rather than institutional accumulation. China exposure, at 20-25 % of revenue, remains subject to Dutch and allied export controls and caps the addressable market in the most dynamic segment in volume terms. In the short term, the stock trades below its 50-session moving average (-2,7 %).
Scenarios
The bullish scenario (probability 30 %) assumes a recovery in artificial intelligence equipment spending, an accommodative BCE after 10/09, a positive decoupling from TSM on 16/09, execution of the repurchases and the absence of a new embargo on China. The central scenario (probability 55 %) holds to a third quarter in line at 11-12 Md EUR, a gross margin of 55-57 %, a stable EXPANSION macro backdrop and the absence of a bearish catalyst. The bearish scenario (probability 15 %) combines a halt to AI spending, tighter export controls towards China and a more restrictive BCE, with an estimated maximum decline of -30 %.
Risks
The main sector risk lies in China exposure, namely 20-25 % of revenue, under Dutch and allied export controls that could tighten. The valuation, about 22 % above consensus, and a price dynamic driven by opening gaps rather than by institutional accumulation weaken the short-term profile, with the stock trading below its 50-session moving average (-2,7 %). The 0,52 correlation with STMPA.PA, the -0,57 asymmetry and the 0,97 robustness of the correlation group point to high sector concentration, which amplifies shared exposure to semiconductor cycles.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Third quarter 2026 results with High-NA orders | |
| T3 2026 release, expected with EUV net orders | |
| Investor day and update of the capacity plan |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| strong (3/3) | Unchanged. The current deterministic score stands at +5,00, against +6,50 at the verdict of 2026-09-02 and +5,00 in the fundamentals layer. This variation reflects the PEG recalculation mechanics and does not constitute a new dated fact, such as a result, guidance, price or regulation. The weighted rules remain triggered identically: cm-lynch-peg-excessif -1,5, cm-lynch-fast-grower +1,0, ff-rmw-profitabilite +0,5, ff-momentum-12-1 +0,5, vq-buffett-moat-roic +2,0. | |
| strong (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| strong (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| strong (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the signal of 2026-09-10 for ASML?
The signal is strong, with a vote of 3/3 and a score of 5,0. It rests on 2026 guidance raised to 43-45 Md EUR, an EUV HVM monopoly and a bullish EXPANSION regime of 0,60 that favours semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The 12 Md EUR repurchase programme over 2026-2028 completes these fundamental elements.
Why has the 2026 guidance been raised?
The annual guidance is lifted to 43-45 Md EUR. The third quarter is expected at 11-12 Md EUR with a gross margin of 55-57 %, after sequential acceleration from 8,8 to 9,3 and then 11-12 Md EUR. This trajectory confirms demand for EUV equipment and supports the positive fundamental signal despite an already elevated price.
Which factors could weaken the thesis?
Three factors stand out. China exposure accounts for 20-25 % of revenue under Dutch and allied export controls. The price of 1474,20 EUR exceeds consensus expectations by about 22 %. Finally, the two-year rise rests mainly on the opening gap (ratio of 2,2), and the stock trades below its 50-session moving average (-2,7 %).
What about the dividend and the share repurchases?
ASML detached on 27/07/2026 an interim dividend of 1,88 EUR per share, payable on 05/08/2026. A 12 Md EUR repurchase programme runs over 2026-2028. These flows to shareholders come on top of profitability well rated by the quality factors, with no Beneish accounting alert detected.
What does the correlation with STMPA.PA reveal?
The 0,52 correlation between ASML and STMPA.PA, with an asymmetry of -0,57, signals that the two stocks often move together within a group of highly correlated semiconductor names (robustness of 0,97). This sector concentration amplifies shared exposure to the cycles of the sector. It takes nothing away from the strong signal, but it calls for reading the dynamic of the sector as a whole.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 10, 2026; this page was completed on September 11, 2026 at 00:30 (UTC).
- Interests: data consulted on (UTC) records a position held by the author in the stock analysed (ASML.AS). This consultation does not reconstruct the situation at the analysis publication date.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Arm Holdings plc (ARM)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology