Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP): analysis and signal as of September 4, 2026
In short
The signal is weak for Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) as of September 4, 2026, with a vote of 2 out of 3. This assessment is based on the absence of a specific catalyst and verified fundamental data, with the share price moving below the 50-day moving average.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 2/3) divergence
- Deterministic score
- +5.0 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : positive, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
The expansion regime and the defensive nature of beverages provide macroeconomic support, but no catalyst specific to the stock is emerging. Verification of results, valuation and debt remains essential before any conclusion. The price of 105,96 USD is below the 50-day moving average, which weakens the bullish signal. Without controlled fundamental elements, a solid opinion cannot be formed.
Bull case
American growth of 4,7 %, the decline in the high-yield bond spread to 2,66 % and a generally stable interest rate environment support a defensive consumer company exposed to Europe. These macroeconomic elements reinforce the expected resilience of the bottler model and justify the persistence of a favorable bias, despite the price level.
Bear case
The stock depends almost entirely on overnight advances, with negative intraday return over two years and over six months. Sensitivity to interest rate changes, risks of taxation of sugary drinks and lack of visibility on leverage weaken attractiveness. Remaining below the 50-day moving average leaves the price exposed to a pullback scenario.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario, with a probability of 25 %, would lead the price between 120 and 125 USD after confirmed break of the 50-day moving average. The central scenario, at 50 %, expects consolidation between 98 and 112 USD. The bearish scenario, at 25 %, considers a pullback toward 84 USD, or approximately -20,7 % from 105,96 USD.
Risks
Sensitivity to rates, increased taxation of sugary drinks and insufficient visibility on debt and cash flows constitute the main risks. The potential decline toward 84 USD represents a major depreciation. Any interpretation requires prior verification of published accounts and financing conditions.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 5.15 %
- Days to cover
- 7.13
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-31
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-09-12)
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (2/3) | No notable change as of September 4, 2026. |
Frequently asked questions
Why does the signal remain weak despite American growth of 4,7 %?
American growth of 4,7 % provides a favorable context, but it is not a catalyst specific to the stock. The price of 105,96 USD remains below the 50-day moving average, which indicates technical fragility. Moreover, data on earnings, valuation and debt have not been verified. The signal therefore remains weak.
What technical condition is associated with the bullish scenario?
The bullish scenario, with a probability of 25 %, assumes a confirmed break of the 50-day moving average. This break would open the way toward the zone of 120 to 125 USD. Validation relies on the behavior of the moving average, without a price level being established as an objective.
What is the main bearish argument?
The stock depends almost entirely on overnight advances, with negative intraday return over two years and over six months. Sensitivity to rate changes, risks of taxation of sugary drinks and lack of visibility on leverage weaken attractiveness. The 50-day moving average is not crossed, reinforcing the unfavorable orientation.
What must an analysis verify before forming an opinion?
Before any opinion, an analysis must verify net debt, cash flows and valuation. The system has not confirmed these fundamental data. It must also check financing conditions and exposure to rates. Without these verifications, a weak signal cannot be transformed into a solid assessment.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 4, 2026; this page was completed on September 5, 2026 at 18:36 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CCEP) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS.L)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology