Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026

Published on September 3, 2026 at 19:09 · Updated on September 3, 2026 at 22:23 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Consumer Non-Durables

In short

The system delivers no signal on Colgate-Palmolive as of 2026-09-03, with a score of 3.0 on a 3/3 vote. The main reason lies in the absence of an own catalyst, combined with a high valuation premium for a defensive stock in a Fed rate regime of 3.50-3.75 %.

Current signal: no signal (vote 3/3) divergence
Deterministic score: +3.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat	+2.0
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns	+1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Colgate-Palmolive remains a quality defensive consumer stock, a dividend aristocrat. The price of 90.10 USD trades +3.8 % above the 200-session moving average, while the -1.8 % gap to the 50-session moving average signals a fragile intermediate reversal. No own catalyst is identified, the ECB deadline of 10/09 and the CLARITY deadline of 15/09 do not affect the stock directly, and no real-time verifiable data on Q2 FY2026 is available. The anticipated multiple of 21-23x, faced with a Fed rate regime of 3.50-3.75 %, retains a high premium for a defensive ballast role.

Bull case

The competitive advantage appears wide, with a Buffett score of +2.0, a Novy-Marx gross profitability of +1.0 and an RMW margin of +0.5. This structural operational quality rests on pricing power carried by the Colgate Total, elmex and Sanex brands. The neutral macro regime of 0.55 supports the defensive bucket. The dividend aristocrat status rests on more than 30 consecutive years of increases, supported by a share buyback program of about 1 Bn USD per year. Exposure to China remains very minor compared with Procter & Gamble, which limits the impact of the anti-China rotation tied to the CLARITY and Swiss TBTF deadlines.

Bear case

The technical configuration deteriorates, with a price -1.8 % below the 50-session moving average and an intraday distribution of -12.3 % over 6 months. The anticipated multiple of 21-23x appears high for a defensive consumer stock in a Fed rate regime of 3.50-3.75 %. Structural exposure to emerging markets, about 30 % of revenue and 45 % of earnings, could amplify an increase in EUR/USD after the ECB meeting on 10/09 through an unfavorable translation charge. Factor quality is near zero, with a Student t of -0.1 on the quality factor. The stock does not match the academic definition of a quality stock that compounds its results, it is simply an expensive defensive name.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario, with a probability of 30 %, assumes a return toward the 50-session moving average then an extension toward the top of the 6-month channel. The central scenario, with a probability of 50 %, anticipates movement within a range around the bottom of consensus and the 200-session moving average. The bearish scenario, with a probability of 20 %, corresponds to a close below the 200-session moving average, which would invalidate the thesis, followed by an extension toward the bottom of the 2-year channel.

Risks

Technical invalidation is defined qualitatively: a close below the 200-session moving average would invalidate the thesis, in line with the low end of analyst consensus. The main risks combine the sensitivity of the multiple premium to the rate regime, a potential translation charge on emerging markets after the ECB meeting on 10/09 and the absence of verifiable data on Q2 FY2026. The recovery of the 50-session moving average would constitute the first marker of intermediate stabilization. No new dated fact has arrived since the verdict of 31/08/2026.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 2.35 %
Days to cover: 4.04
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
October 30, 2026	Résultats T3 2026

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 3, 2026	no signal (3/3)	Unchanged. No new dated numerical data (result, guidance, price of 03/09/2026, regulatory or activist news) has arrived since the verdict of 31/08/2026. The fundamental, technical and risks/sentiment layers again converge toward neutral without any new triggering fact. The weighted deterministic signal remains at +3.00, insufficient to switch to strong or moderate without confirmation from real data on Q2 FY2026 EPS and the current forward multiple.
August 31, 2026	no signal (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What signal does the system deliver on Colgate-Palmolive?

The system delivers no signal, with a score of 3.0 and a unanimous 3/3 vote. The price of 90.10 USD trades +3.8 % above the 200-session moving average but remains -1.8 % below the 50-session moving average. Without an own catalyst and without verifiable data on Q2 FY2026, the risk-reward profile does not shift.

Why is the valuation considered high?

The forward earnings multiple stands between 21 and 23 times, a high level for a defensive consumer stock. This premium is faced with a Federal Reserve rate regime between 3.50 and 3.75 %. Factor analysis further judges quality as near zero, with a Student t score of -0.1, which deprives the stock of academic quality stock status.

What strengths support the bullish scenario?

The company has a wide competitive advantage, measured by a Buffett score of +2.0, a Novy-Marx gross profitability of +1.0 and an RMW margin of +0.5. Its pricing power rests on the Colgate Total, elmex and Sanex brands. It shows more than 30 consecutive years of dividend increases and a buyback program of about 1 Bn USD per year.

What main risks does the analysis identify?

Structural exposure to emerging markets, about 30 % of revenue and 45 % of earnings, could amplify the impact of a rise in the euro against the dollar after the ECB meeting on 10/09. The technical configuration deteriorates, with a price below the 50-session moving average and an intraday distribution of -12.3 % over 6 months. The neutral macro regime of 0.55 however limits the stress scenario.

What technical invalidation should be watched?

A close below the 200-session moving average would invalidate the defensive thesis. This break would coincide with the low end of analyst consensus and would open the path toward the bottom of the 2-year channel. A prior recovery of the 50-session moving average would instead constitute the first sign of intermediate stabilization sought by the system.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

July 31, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
July 31, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
May 13, 2026 — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
May 1, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 2.05 Cost Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
May 1, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 22:23 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CL) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.