CME Group (CME): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026
In short
The signal is weak with a score of -4.00. Valuation is already priced into the consensus and sector risk remains.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- -4.0 → signal expected by the scale : no signal (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8) | -3.0 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
CME Group is a high-quality defensive market infrastructure. The competitive moat is wide due to the clearing monopoly in the United States. The balance sheet is solid with massive buybacks. The consensus is already priced in. The deterministic signal remains negative. Sector risk linked to crypto perps, the CFTC and the Langer litigation is unresolved. The expansion regime supports volumes. Cboe complacency and the US curve slope weigh on valuation. The Q3 2026 catalyst and the antitrust verdict are expected.
Bull case
The second quarter 2026 is record. Revenues progress by 9 %. Earnings per share reach 2.88 $. The buyback amounts to 1.237 Md$ in the first half 2026. The annual variable dividend is 2.1 Md$. The balance sheet is nearly net debt free. The clearing monopoly on futures and equities strengthens the position.
Bear case
The consensus Hold is at 283.07 $. The price is at 281.29 $. No upside is visible. The PER of 21.9x is high for a defensive value. Cboe complacency translates to a slope of -32 % on the VIX9D/VIX3M ratio. Coverage is sparse. Sector risk of crypto perps persists. CME files with the CFTC. Coinbase and Deribit push US equity perps on 04/09/2026. The Langer litigation of 2.1 Md$ remains active in 2026.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario has a 30 % probability with a target of 320.67 $. The consensus of 23 analysts indicates +6.2 %. The central scenario has a 50 % probability in a range of 280 to 290 $. The bearish scenario has a 20 % probability with a maximum loss of -18 % at 230 $. This level corresponds to the lower end of the consensus and a break of the 200 session moving average.
Risks
Sector risk linked to crypto perps, the CFTC and the Langer litigation is not yet resolved. Cboe complacency and the US curve slope of +0.41 pt weigh on valuation. The consensus is already priced in. The deterministic signal remains negative.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 1.59 %
- Days to cover
- 2.83
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-31
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-09-12)
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | not published | |
| weak (3/3) | not published | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the current signal on CME Group?
The signal is weak with a score of -4.00. The vote is 3/3. Valuation is already priced into the consensus. Sector risk linked to crypto perps, the CFTC and the Langer litigation is unresolved. The expansion regime supports volumes. Cboe complacency and the US curve slope weigh on valuation. The Q3 2026 catalyst and the antitrust verdict are expected.
What are the main bullish arguments?
The second quarter 2026 is record. Revenues progress by 9 %. Earnings per share reach 2.88 $. The buyback amounts to 1.237 Md$ in the first half 2026. The annual variable dividend is 2.1 Md$. The balance sheet is nearly net debt free. The clearing monopoly on futures and equities strengthens the position.
What are the main bearish arguments?
The consensus Hold is at 283.07 $. The price is at 281.29 $. No upside is visible. The PER of 21.9x is high for a defensive value. Cboe complacency translates to a slope of -32 % on the VIX9D/VIX3M ratio. Coverage is sparse. Sector risk of crypto perps persists. CME files with the CFTC. Coinbase and Deribit push US equity perps on 04/09/2026. The Langer litigation of 2.1 Md$ remains active in 2026.
What are the possible price scenarios?
The bullish scenario has a 30 % probability with a target of 320.67 $. The consensus of 23 analysts indicates +6.2 %. The central scenario has a 50 % probability in a range of 280 to 290 $. The bearish scenario has a 20 % probability with a maximum loss of -18 % at 230 $. This level corresponds to the lower end of the consensus and a break of the 200 session moving average.
What are the main identified risks?
Sector risk linked to crypto perps, the CFTC and the Langer litigation is not yet resolved. Cboe complacency and the US curve slope of +0.41 pt weigh on valuation. The consensus is already priced in. The deterministic signal remains negative.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 9.01 Fin… (SEC · 8-K)
- — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 01:26 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CME) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology