Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): analysis and signal as of September 4, 2026
In short
The signal on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) as of September 4, 2026 is weak, with a vote of 2/3. The multiple near 50 times net earnings per share leaves no margin of safety, and the technical configuration signals a fragile rebound.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 2/3)
- Deterministic score
- +1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
Thesis
Chipotle Mexican Grill presents a long-term quality profile, with a recognized brand, a defensible supply chain and pricing power. However, its current valuation, around 50 times net earnings per share, offers no margin of safety. The difficulty of verifying the latest quarter data in real time makes it necessary to publish the mid-October 2026 results to confirm the earnings per share trajectory.
Bull case
The premium brand, the operational moat based on visible kitchen preparation, American sourcing that limits tariff exposure, the 6 billion USD share repurchase program and the expansionary macroeconomic regime favorable to premium consumption constitute the main bullish argument. The recovery of earnings per share growth can draw support from these elements.
Bear case
The stock trades in a range of 50 to 55 times net earnings per share, compared with around 22 to 25 times for McDonald's, representing a premium of 100 to 130 %. Such a premium is justified only if earnings per share growth sustainably exceeds 15 % per year. The negative intraday return structure over six months indicates an absence of institutional accumulation and a sentiment rebound not confirmed by long-term flows.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario assigns a probability of 25 %, with a price of 55 USD if results exceed expectations and the share repurchase program remains active. The central scenario, at 50 %, places the stock movement between 32 and 42 USD over twelve months, with a slight multiple compression and no major catalyst. The bearish scenario, at 25 %, anticipates a price of 25 USD in the event of a slowdown in comparable sales and multiple contraction toward 35 times net earnings per share.
Risks
The main risk lies in the absence of confirmation of the earnings per share trajectory through verified data on the latest quarter. The valuation level leaves little support in the event of downward revisions of expectations. The persistence of a negative intraday return and the absence of institutional accumulation weaken the technical thesis.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 3.05 %
- Days to cover
- 1.82
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 results |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (2/3) | Personal analysis, does not constitute investment advice. |
Frequently asked questions
Why is the signal weak despite a long-term quality profile?
The quality profile is recognized, but the multiple of approximately 50 times net earnings per share does not include any margin of safety. Moreover, the negative intraday return over six months is not confirmed by long-term flows. The 2/3 vote expresses this caution.
Which elements could confirm the bullish thesis?
The premium brand, the operational moat, American sourcing that limits tariff exposure, the 6 billion USD share repurchase program and the expansionary macroeconomic environment are favorable elements. Solid results published in mid-October 2026, with earnings per share growth above 15 %, would support the expected trajectory.
What is the central scenario for the next twelve months?
The central scenario, with a probability of 50 %, places the stock movement in a range of 32 to 42 USD over twelve months. It relies on a slight multiple compression and the absence of a major catalyst. A pronounced slowdown in comparable sales would tilt the scenario toward 25 USD, with multiple contraction.
Is Chipotle's valuation comparable to that of McDonald's?
The stock trades between 50 and 55 times net earnings per share, while McDonald's trades between 22 and 25 times. The premium reaches 100 to 130 %. The sustained maintenance of such a premium assumes net earnings per share growth above 15 % per year.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 4, 2026; this page was completed on September 5, 2026 at 18:36 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CMG) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS.L)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology