CRH public limited company (CRH): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal is absent, the score null, and the conviction neutral. The technical setup, which is degraded below the 50 and 200 session moving averages, blocks any directional reading, due to the absence of a complete fundamental layer on valuation, leverage, accounting quality, and 2026 guidance.
- Current signal
- no signal (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) divergence
- Deterministic score
- +1.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors an ETF domiciled in Ireland (ISIN IE…): no Irish withholding tax at distribution | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
Thesis
CRH benefits from structural demand linked to infrastructure, electrification, and data centers. Exposure to North American residential real estate credit and to materials prices remains pronounced, which maintains a cyclical profile. On the chart side, the stock is trading below the 50 session moving average and below the 200 session moving average, which reflects a medium term bearish trend that has not yet been invalidated. The fundamental layer remains neutral but incomplete on valuation, leverage, accounting quality, and 2026 guidance, which prevents the establishment of a margin of safety.
Bull case
Infrastructure programs in the United States, grid electrification, and the development of data centers can support demand for aggregates, concrete, and asphalt. A return above the 50 and 200 session moving averages would constitute an initial positive technical signal and would confirm the strength of structural demand.
Bear case
Sensitivity to residential real estate credit, to long term rates, and to materials prices exposes profitability to a marked contraction in the event of a prolonged slowdown. The current technical deterioration, with the stock below the 50 and 200 session moving averages, reflects an absence of bullish catalyst and suggests a risk of further decline as long as no durable return above these thresholds is observed, without current evidence of a discount.
Scenarios
Bullish scenario, probability 25 %, indicative target 109,5 USD. Central scenario, probability 50 %, target 91,20 USD, in sideways consolidation. Bearish scenario, probability 25 %, indicative maximum loss 25 %, i.e. 68,40 USD. None of these outcomes constitutes a recommendation, they describe the statistical distribution of possible paths.
Risks
The main risk lies in the absence of an identifiable operational leverage that would amplify a favorable turnaround. Confidence in the analysis remains medium, degraded by missing data on valuation, accounting leverage, the quality of financial statements, and 2026 guidance, which limits the reliability of the scenarios.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 1.94 %
- Days to cover
- 2.73
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 results - US cement margin to monitor |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| no signal (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
Why is the signal described as absent rather than bearish?
The signal is described as absent because the score comes out at 0 and the conviction remains neutral. The fundamental layer remains incomplete on valuation, leverage, accounting quality, and 2026 guidance. Without a verifiable margin of safety and without a confirmed technical turnaround, no reliable directional reading can be drawn, hence the absence of a signal.
What would be needed for a bullish signal to appear?
A bullish signal would assume a durable return of the stock above the 50 and 200 session moving averages, which would confirm the resumption of the medium term trend. Tangible fundamental elements on valuation, leverage, and 2026 guidance, currently missing from the analysis, would also be required.
What would be needed for a bearish signal to appear?
A bearish signal could emerge if the trend below the 50 and 200 session moving averages intensified and if the fundamental data confirmed a deterioration in demand for aggregates and concrete. The current absence of an identifiable operational leverage and the incomplete fundamental layer nevertheless prevent any premature activation of such a signal.
How should sensitivity to US long term rates be interpreted?
Sensitivity to US long term rates reflects the link between demand for construction materials and the cost of residential real estate credit. A durable rise in long term rates slows housing starts and weighs on volumes sold. An easing would, on the contrary, support the recovery of residential projects and demand for aggregates.
What is the overall reliability of this analysis?
The overall reliability of the analysis is judged medium, degraded by missing data on valuation, accounting leverage, the quality of financial statements, and 2026 guidance. The absence of an identifiable operational leverage limits the amplitude of the scenarios. The 25 / 50 / 25 distribution reflects this prudent balance.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 08:32 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CRH) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: ATI Inc. (ATI)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology