Equifax Inc (EFX): analysis and signal as of September 8, 2026
In short
The signal for Equifax Inc (EFX) is weak with a score of -0,5. The main reason is the consolidation of the stock below its 200-day moving average in a macroeconomic environment unfavorable to rate-sensitive values.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- -0.5 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : –, price : positive, risks : –
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
Thesis
Equifax Inc (EFX) reports solid second quarter 2026 results. Revenue reaches 1,716 Md USD, up 11 % year-over-year. EBITDA stands at 618 M USD for a margin of 35,9 %. The debt/EBITDA ratio is 1,56x. The commercial pipeline amounts to 18,4 Md USD. The stock is in a consolidation zone below its 200-day moving average. The macro regime weighs on rate-sensitive assets. The deterministic signal remains negative.
Bull case
Second quarter 2026 EBITDA grows 11 % year-over-year. The EBITDA margin reaches 35,9 %. The debt/EBITDA ratio holds at 1,56x. The commercial pipeline represents 18,4 Md USD. Signed government contracts amount to 300 M USD. The third quarter 2026 guidance is raised. Expected revenue ranges between 1,735 and 1,755 Md USD. Expected EBITDA oscillates between 622 and 628 M USD. The average analyst target lies between 215 and 222 USD. The current price is 177,05 USD. This range represents a margin of 22 to 26 %.
Bear case
The stock trades 5,1 % below its 200-day moving average. It sits 0,4 % above its 50-day moving average. The macro regime is in expansion. Cboe risk is in compliance. The VIX shows a negative slope. US inflation at 3,5 % is off target. This factor penalizes yield values. Short interest has fallen by 8,11 %. This decline reduces squeeze potential. CEO Begor sold 37 791 shares in July 2026. The average price of this sale is 175,85 USD. This sale occurs above the 52-week floor.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario relies on the realization of the raised guidance and the conversion of the commercial pipeline. The bearish scenario stems from the persistence of consolidation below the 200-day moving average and macro pressure on rates. The base scenario maintains the weak signal as long as the stock remains below this technical boundary. Qualitative invalidation of the bearish thesis would require a resumption of the bullish trend above the 200-day moving average.
Risks
The main risk lies in interest rate sensitivity. US inflation at 3,5 % exerts pressure on yield values. The 8,11 % drop in short interest reduces speculative rebound leverage. The share sale by CEO Begor may weigh on market perception. The expansion macro regime with a negative slope VIX limits risk coverage. The concentration of the movement adds a cost to the loss of diversification.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 5.48 %
- Days to cover
- 5.98
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| T3 2026 results and EFX One guidance | |
| Wells Fargo Tech Conference |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | The second quarter 2026 shows revenue of 1,716 Md USD, up 11 % year-over-year. EBITDA stands at 618 M USD. The margin reaches 35,9 %. The debt/EBITDA ratio is 1,56x. Short interest has fallen by 8,11 %. CEO Begor sold shares in July 2026. These facts do not modify the weak signal. | |
| weak (2/2) | No new dated facts since the verdict of August 31, 2026. The price of September 2 remains above the invalidation threshold. No calendar boundary concerns Equifax Inc. Data gaps in the fundamental and risk layers do not constitute new facts. The signal remains unchanged. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the revenue for the second quarter 2026?
Second quarter 2026 revenue amounts to 1,716 Md USD. This value represents an 11 % year-over-year increase. Associated EBITDA is 618 M USD. The EBITDA margin reaches 35,9 %. The debt/EBITDA ratio stands at 1,56x. These indicators confirm the group's operational solidity during this period.
Why is the signal weak despite solid results?
The signal is weak due to the technical position of the stock. The price trades below its 200-day moving average. The macro regime weighs on rate-sensitive values. US inflation at 3,5 % is off target. Short interest has fallen by 8,11 %. The share sale by CEO Begor in July 2026 reinforces this negative reading. The deterministic score remains at -0,5.
What are the identified bullish elements?
Bullish elements include the 11 % revenue growth. The EBITDA margin reaches 35,9 %. The commercial pipeline amounts to 18,4 Md USD. The third quarter 2026 guidance is raised. The average analyst target lies between 215 and 222 USD. The current price of 177,05 USD offers a margin of 22 to 26 % compared to these targets.
What is the impact of the CEO's share sale?
CEO Begor sold 37 791 shares in July 2026. The average price of this sale is 175,85 USD. This operation occurs above the 52-week floor. It fits within a context of an 8,11 % drop in short interest. These elements contribute to the weak signal without altering the fundamental thesis of operational solidity.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 5.03 Amendments to Articles of Incorporation or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 8, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 12:22 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (EFX) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Eurofins Scientific (ERF.PA)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology