Halliburton Company (HAL): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal on Halliburton is weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a score of 0,0. The technical configuration is bullish, but the inability to retrieve recent fundamental data prevents the stock from being positioned within the oil services cycle.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +0.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Halliburton benefits from the favoured energy macro basket under a regime described as bullish neutral at 0,55. The technical configuration remains bullish, with a marked outperformance against the 50 and 200-session moving averages. However, the absence of live verification of the fundamentals keeps the uncertainty over the company's stage in the OFS cycle.
Bull case
The bullish technical configuration is confirmed at 37,56 USD, with an outperformance of +10,5 % versus the 50-session moving average and of +8,7 % versus the 200-session moving average. The US oil services sector remains favoured by the current macro regime: Fed rates between 3,50 and 3,75 %, CPI at 3,40 % and energy present in the favoured basket. The six-month shift in the in-session and out-of-session profile towards a healthier institutional dynamic supports the technical strength.
Bear case
No recent fundamental data could be retrieved, with the SEC responding with error 403, Yahoo and Reuters with error 401 and search engines blocking queries through anti-bot mechanisms. This shortcoming rules out any qualification of the stock's stage in the OFS cycle as well as any comparison with the peers SLB, BKR and WFRD. The 15 % withholding tax on US dividends remains heavy and the fis-estate-tax-us rule penalises the score by -1,0. Furthermore, the TSM ex-dividend date of 16 September creates a risk of an unfavourable sector rotation if semiconductors capture the attention of flows.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario, assigned a probability of 30 %, assumes an institutional catalyst or a durably supported WTI barrel. The central scenario, at 50 %, describes a range-bound evolution until the publication of third-quarter 2026 results, scheduled for mid-October. The bearish scenario, at 20 %, anticipates a marked pullback in the event of a fall in crude or a rotation towards semiconductors after the TSM ex-dividend date.
Risks
The main risk lies in the absence of verified fundamental data, which limits the depth of the analysis. On the technical side, a weekly close below the 200-session moving average would amount to a break of the bullish configuration and would weaken the thesis. The 15 % withholding tax and US estate taxation weigh on the score. Moreover, a rotation of flows towards semiconductors around the TSM ex-dividend date of 16 September would weaken the oil services sector.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 3.73 %
- Days to cover
- 3.07
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 North America Results and Pricing Power | |
| OPEC+ earnings season, barrel price signal |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | No new dated fact since the verdict of 30 August 2026. The deterministic score remains at +0,00 with the same rules triggered: US estate taxation -1,0, profitability +0,5 and 12-1 momentum +0,5. The calendar milestones (AVGO on 2 September, BCE on 10 September, CLARITY on 15 September and Arc on 16 September) are not in themselves confirmed catalysts for Halliburton. Unchanged data flagged as possibly stale do not count as new facts within the meaning of the doctrine. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
Why is the signal weak despite a bullish technical configuration?
The technical configuration is bullish and the vote reaches 3/3, but no recent fundamental data could be retrieved: the SEC responded with error 403, Yahoo and Reuters with error 401, and search engines blocked the queries. It is therefore impossible to place the stock within the OFS cycle or to compare it with SLB, BKR and WFRD, hence a weak signal despite a score of 0,0.
What macroeconomic context supports US oil services?
The prevailing macro regime is described as bullish neutral with an indicator at 0,55. Fed policy rates stand between 3,50 and 3,75 % and inflation measured by the CPI comes out at 3,40 %. Within this framework, the energy basket is among the favoured sectors, which supports US oil services and therefore Halliburton.
Which technical elements argue in favour of the stock?
The stock trades at 37,56 USD and outperforms its 50-session moving average by 10,5 % as well as its 200-session moving average by 8,7 %. The six-month shift in the in-session and out-of-session profile towards a healthier institutional dynamic confirms the strength of the technical configuration.
What taxation applies to US dividends for this stock?
Dividends paid by US companies are subject to a 15 % withholding tax. The analysis also applies a -1,0 penalty linked to US estate taxation, identified by the fis-estate-tax-us rule, which weighs on the final score assigned to the stock.
Which upcoming events could influence the stock?
The publication of third-quarter 2026 results is scheduled for mid-October and is the main event. The TSM ex-dividend date of 16 September creates a risk of a rotation towards semiconductors. The AVGO milestone of 2 September, BCE of 10 September, CLARITY of 15 September and Arc of 16 September do not, on their own, constitute confirmed catalysts for Halliburton.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 00:42 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (HAL) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Aena S.M.E., S.A. (AENA.MC)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology