ID Logistics Group (IDL.PA): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026
In short
ID Logistics Group retains a weak signal, with a vote of 3/3 and a weighted deterministic score of -1,00. No dated new fact has occurred and the unfavorable technical reading dominates a fundamental judged unverifiable, with the verdict remaining suspended pending the BCE meeting of 10/09/2026.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- -1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : negative, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8) | -3.0 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
Thesis
The ID Logistics Group case remains binary. The weighted deterministic score stagnates at -1,00 and none of the three analytical layers stands out as the dominant signal. The technical reading runs counter to any immediate bullish thesis, the fundamental remains unverifiable offline and the risk/sentiment layer brings a positive point that is insufficient to tip the verdict. In the absence of a dated new fact, the BCE meeting of 10/09/2026 is the next catalyst capable of moving the analysis.
Bull case
S1 2026 growth, published at the end of July, reaches +18,3 % year on year on 2,085 Md EUR, driven by North America and Europe. This momentum validates the group's contract logistics model and points to positive transmission to EBITDA, provided that wage pressure and decarbonization costs remain contained.
Bear case
The two-year overnight/intraday decomposition of the stock reveals a gap of 80,9 points in favor of the closing flow alone. This profile reflects slow distribution rather than a primary bullish trend. The configuration is confirmed by a price of 332,50 EUR, below the MM50 (-4,4 %) and below the MM200 (-9,7 %).
Scenarios
The bullish scenario is set at 25 % and assumes a post-BCE rally toward the MM50 if the central bank validates an accommodative bias. The central scenario, at 50 %, describes a sideways move in the price until the publication of the detailed S1 2026 accounts and the clarification of margins. The bearish scenario, at 25 %, quantifies a maximum loss of 28 % if the BCE meeting of 10/09/2026 confirms a restrictive bias and if margin compression appears at the half-year publication.
Risks
The main risk lies in the publication of the detailed S1 2026 accounts, where confirmed margin compression would weaken the fundamental reading, judged unverifiable offline by the analysis process. Wage pressure and decarbonization costs limit the transmission of growth to EBITDA. In the shorter term, the BCE decision of 10/09/2026 could strengthen the bearish scenario in the event of a restrictive bias. The technical profile of slow distribution, with the price below the MM50 and the MM200, increases the stock's vulnerability.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 revenue expected |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | No dated new fact since the verdict of 2026-09-01. The BCE meeting of 10/09/2026 has not yet taken place and the fundamental data could not be reverified live. The weighted deterministic score remains unchanged at -1,00 and the three layers reproduce the previous verdicts without any disruptive element. This content is informative and does not constitute investment advice. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the current signal on ID Logistics Group?
The signal is weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a weighted deterministic score of -1,00. None of the three analytical layers dominates. The technical reading penalizes the case, the fundamental remains unverifiable offline and the risk/sentiment layer brings a positive point that is insufficient to tip the verdict. Without a dated new fact, the decision remains suspended pending the BCE meeting of 10/09/2026.
What growth did ID Logistics publish for S1 2026?
S1 2026 growth, published at the end of July, stands at +18,3 % year on year on 2,085 Md EUR, driven by North America and Europe. This momentum validates the group's contract logistics model and points to positive transmission to EBITDA, provided that wage pressure and decarbonization costs remain contained.
Why does the technical reading weigh on the case?
The two-year overnight/intraday decomposition reveals a gap of 80,9 points in favor of the closing flow alone. This profile reflects slow distribution rather than a primary bullish trend. The current price, at 332,50 EUR, trades below the 50-session moving average (-4,4 %) and below the 200-session moving average (-9,7 %), which confirms the unfavorable configuration.
What scenarios are envisaged around the BCE meeting of 10/09/2026?
The BCE meeting of 10/09/2026 is the main catalyst. An accommodative bias would fuel the bullish scenario, set at 25 %, with a rally toward the 50-session moving average. The central scenario, at 50 %, describes a sideways move until the detailed S1 2026 accounts. A restrictive bias would feed the bearish scenario, at 25 %, which quantifies a maximum loss of 28 %.
What are the main risks identified?
The central risk lies in the publication of the detailed S1 2026 accounts: confirmed margin compression would weaken the fundamental reading, judged unverifiable offline. Wage pressure and decarbonization costs could limit the transmission of growth to EBITDA. The BCE decision of 10/09/2026 and the technical profile of slow distribution, with the price below its moving averages, complete the points to monitor.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — Half yearly financial reports and audit reports/limited reviews / Terms of availability of the half-yearly financial report (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
- — Rapports financiers et d'audit semestriels/examens réduits / Modalités de mise à disposition du rapport financier semestriel (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
- — Rapports financiers et d'audit semestriels/examens réduits / Rapport financier semestriel (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
- — Inside Information / News release on accounts, results (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
- — Informations privilégiées / Communiqué sur comptes, résultats (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 22:47 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (IDL.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology