Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): analysis and signal as of September 6, 2026
In short
Documentary update dated 2026-09-08. Official disclosure dated 2026-08-05. Displayed signals and scores retain their own date; they are not recalculated here.
- Current signal
- moderate (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +6.5 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 12, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : neutral, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
In second quarter 2026, Lilly reported revenue of USD 23.0 billion, up 48%, primarily driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes. Reported EPS reached USD 7.94 and adjusted EPS USD 8.38. Annual guidance is revenue of USD 85.0–87.0 billion and adjusted EPS of USD 35.50–36.50, after acquired research charges.
Bull case
Favourable hypothesis: sustained demand and adequate manufacturing capacity could prolong growth. Future clinical results remain events to verify, without assuming regulatory approvals.
Bear case
Adverse hypothesis: pricing pressure, more restrictive reimbursement or increased competition could constrain profitability despite substantial volumes.
Scenarios
Qualitative scenarios: favourable if the described momentum continues; central if it stabilises; adverse if risks materialise. No probability or share price target is calculated in this review.
Risks
Track volumes separately from net prices, manufacturing investment, acquired research charges and regulatory decisions. Increasing revenue does not establish that the market valuation is attractive. Quotations, valuation and announcements subsequent to the cited document still require verification. Partial or total capital loss is possible.
Verified official disclosure
Accessed on 2026-09-08; interpretations above are research hypotheses.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 0.74 %
- Days to cover
- 2.11
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Décision FDA attendue sur orforglipron (GLP-1 oral) | |
| Q3 2026 results and FY guidance update (zone 'ECB 10/09' ignored because macro, non-company). |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| moderate (3/3) | not published | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the scope of this update?
This review covers the official quarterly results cited in the report. It distinguishes reported accounts, adjusted measures and management expectations. Market prices, consensus estimates and technical indicators are not refreshed in this documentary update. It therefore does not establish a new market signal.
How should scenarios be interpreted?
The scenarios describe possible mechanisms, without numerical probabilities or share price targets. They are not established events. Monitoring them requires comparing subsequent disclosures with the stated hypotheses, also looking for contradictory evidence and changes in the economic environment that could invalidate the interpretation.
What checks remain necessary?
Links to official documents allow figures and reporting periods to be checked. Subsequent announcements, dated prices and valuation still require verification. Historical results guarantee no future performance, and partial or total capital loss remains possible. The review is a dated research document with an explicitly limited scope.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 6, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 21:06 (UTC).
- Interests: data consulted on (UTC) records a position held by the author in the stock analysed (LLY). This consultation does not reconstruct the situation at the analysis publication date.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology