Newmont Corporation (NEM): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal is classified as weak with a score of 6,0 on 3 votes converging toward neutrality. The valuation already largely capitalizes on a high gold price scenario and the absence of an immediate catalyst justifies holding off without action.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3) divergence
- Deterministic score
- +6.0 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Operational quality remains a strength, with a net margin of 33 %, an OCF of 12,63 bn USD exceeding the net result of 8,60 bn USD, a high and durable ROIC, a positive net cash position, and a low goodwill of 4,6 % of assets. However, the valuation already largely incorporates a high gold price scenario, as illustrated by a forward PER of 13,75, a 59,4 % YoY rise in capitalization, and a marked extension above the MM50 (+17,2 %) and MM200 (+14,9 %). The absence of an immediate catalyst before the ECB meeting on 10/09 and the Q3 2026 publication mid-October, combined with a beta of 0,50 and the absence of the stock from the favored segments of the 2026-08-29 macro framework, calls for tactical patience. The quarterly dividend of 1,04 USD, representing a yield of 0,84 %, appears too modest to offset the risk of a return to the sector average.
Bull case
Operational profitability stands among the strongest in the gold industry, with a net margin of 33 % and an OCF exceeding the net result, a sign of quality conversion. The high and durable ROIC, combined with a low goodwill of 4,6 % of assets and a positive net debt position, reflects a sound balance sheet structure. AISC ranks among the best in the industry, which protects margins in the event of a commodity pullback. Exposure to copper via Red Chris and Cadia provides complementary diversification. The institutional accumulation signature, with an intraday/overnight ratio of approximately 4:1 over two years, suggests sustained interest from institutional operators.
Bear case
The valuation appears stretched with a forward PER of 13,75 on a stock in extension of +17,2 % above the MM50 and a 59,4 % capitalization rise over a year. Dependence on the spot gold price remains almost exclusive, in a context of elevated US real rates, with a Fed at 3,50-3,75 % under the Warsh assumption and a CPI at 3,40 %. The stock does not belong to any of the favored categories of the macro framework, namely semiconductors/AI, electrification, energy, and defensive healthcare. Geopolitical risk remains high, with exposures to Peru, Ghana, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. The effective double taxation, estimated at approximately 31,4 % on dividends, weighs more heavily than for a European stock.
Scenarios
Bullish scenario, 25 % probability: a sustained gold price allows NEM to confirm or raise guidance, opening an interval of 140-150 USD. Central scenario, 50 % probability: the stock moves in a range between 110 and 130 USD, with total dependence on the spot gold price and the dividend detachment on 03/09 captured without structural movement. Bearish scenario, 25 % probability: a gold correction combined with sector rotation after the ECB meeting on 10/09 or after CLARITY on 15/09 and a missed Q3 guidance exposes an interval of 85-95 USD, representing a maximum loss of approximately 30 % from the 130 zone.
Risks
The main risk lies in a marked correction in the spot gold price, which would constitute the principal downside driver, aggravated by unfavorable sector rotation against gold stocks after the ECB meeting on 10/09 or after the CLARITY event on 15/09. Non-membership in the favored segments of the macro framework exposes the stock to a risk of disaffection in the event of a resumption of semiconductors/AI, electrification, energy, or defensive healthcare themes. Geopolitical risk, linked to exposures to Peru, Ghana, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, may generate operational or regulatory disruptions. Currency risk, dollar against the main currencies, as well as the heavier double taxation than for a European stock, weigh on total return. Technical invalidation is defined by a prolonged close below the MM200, confirmed over two consecutive sessions, described in qualitative terms in the thesis.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 1.80 %
- Days to cover
- 2.53
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| FOMC meeting, a rate cut supports gold | |
| Publication of third quarter 2026 results |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | No new dated facts have been received since the verdict of 2026-08-30. The weighted deterministic score remains at +6,00, with the same rules activated (fis-estate-tax-us -1,0, cm-lynch-peg-attractif +1,5, cm-lynch-fast-grower +1,0, ff-rmw-profitabilite +0,5, ff-momentum-12-1 +0,5, vq-buffett-moat-roic +2,0, vq-piotroski-fscore +1,5). The three layers once again converge on a neutral verdict with average confidence. Coverage remains marked as potentially stale on spot gold figures, Q3 dividend, and associated data. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the main reason for caution on this gold stock?
The valuation already largely capitalizes on a high gold price scenario, as illustrated by a forward PER of 13,75, an extension of +17,2 % above the MM50, and a 59,4 % capitalization rise over a year. The absence of an immediate catalyst before the ECB meeting on 10/09 and the Q3 2026 publication mid-October reinforces this caution.
Why does the dividend not offset the valuation risk?
The quarterly dividend of 1,04 USD offers a yield of 0,84 %, deemed too modest to offset a risk of return to the sector average. The effective double taxation, estimated at approximately 31,4 % on dividends, weighs more heavily than for a European stock and reduces the net return.
What scenarios are envisaged and with what probabilities?
The bullish scenario, 25 % probability, targets an interval of 140-150 USD if gold remains supported and guidance is confirmed. The central scenario, 50 % probability, expects a range between 110 and 130 USD with the dividend detachment on 03/09 without structural movement. The bearish scenario, 25 % probability, exposes an interval of 85-95 USD, representing a maximum loss of approximately 30 % from the 130 zone.
What are the operational strengths of the stock?
Net margin stands at 33 %, with an OCF of 12,63 bn USD exceeding the net result of 8,60 bn USD. ROIC is high and durable, goodwill is low at 4,6 % of assets, and AISC ranks among the best in the industry. Exposure to copper via Red Chris and Cadia provides complementary diversification.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 03:22 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (NEM) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: ATI Inc. (ATI)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology