Oracle Corporation (ORCL): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
As of 02/09/2026, Oracle Corporation shows a weak signal, accompanied by a vote of 2/2 and a score of -5,5. This verdict primarily reflects high indebtedness, an Altman Z-score below 1,8, excessive volatility and a price 13,5 % below the moving average over 200 sessions.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 2/2)
- Deterministic score
- -5.5 → signal expected by the scale : no signal (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8) | -3.0 |
| penalizes an asset whose net debt/EBITDA exceeds the threshold, and the use of leverage (margin/lombard) | -2.5 |
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| penalizes excessive volatility (ruin risk), survival comes first, irreversible loss outweighs the optimization of return | -1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
Thesis
The thesis relies on demand for OCI and for IA capacity to sustain high growth. However, indebtedness, the capital expenditure dedicated to IA capacity and the sensitivity to interest rates weigh more heavily than the diversification the stock provides. The FY26 figures, the FY27 guidance and the liquidity position remain unverified, which limits the scope of the verdict and calls for caution.
Bull case
The bullish argument rests on the database foundation, on OCI and on IA capacity contracts, three pillars able to sustain high growth. In addition, the average correlation of 0,05 gives the stock genuine diversification, an asset highlighted by the analysis.
Bear case
The bearish argument dominates the score of -5,50. It stems from high indebtedness, an Altman Z-score below 1,8, excessive volatility and a price still 13,5 % below the moving average over 200 sessions. The capital expenditure committed for IA capacity and the sensitivity to interest rates complete this picture of fragility.
Scenarios
The analysis weights three trajectories. The central scenario receives a 55 % probability, the bearish scenario 25 % and the bullish scenario 20 %. The weighting of the bearish scenario exceeds that of the bullish scenario, which matches the negative sign of the score.
Risks
The main risks combine high indebtedness, an Altman Z-score below 1,8, excessive volatility and marked sensitivity to interest rates. The capital expenditure committed for IA capacity remains a major unknown. The absence of verification of the FY26 figures, the FY27 guidance and the liquidity adds documentary risk. A lasting stay of the price below the moving average over 200 sessions would further weaken the thesis.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 2.79 %
- Days to cover
- 1.56
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| T3 fiscal 2026 results, GPU monetization |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (2/2) | No new material fact. The analysis remains purely informative and does not constitute investment advice. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What signal does the analysis assign to Oracle?
On 02/09/2026, the system assigns Oracle a weak signal, with a vote of 2/2 and a score of -5,5. This result mainly reflects high indebtedness, an Altman Z-score below 1,8, excessive volatility and a price 13,5 % below the moving average over 200 sessions. In addition, the absence of verification of the FY26 figures, the FY27 guidance and the liquidity limits the scope of this verdict.
Which elements support the growth potential?
The bullish argument rests on the database foundation, on OCI and on IA capacity contracts. According to the analysis, these three pillars can sustain high growth. Moreover, the average correlation of 0,05 provides genuine diversification, an asset the verdict highlights alongside the growth potential.
Why is the score negative?
The score of -5,50 is dominated by high indebtedness, by an Altman Z-score below 1,8, by excessive volatility and by a price still 13,5 % below the moving average over 200 sessions. The capital expenditure linked to IA capacity and the sensitivity to interest rates, both cited in the thesis, worsen this assessment.
Which data are still missing from the analysis?
Three elements remain unverified. The FY26 fiscal-year figures, the guidance issued for FY27 and the liquidity position have not been confirmed. This absence of verification limits the scope of the weak verdict and explains the caution of the system toward a stock whose growth depends on IA capacity demand.
How are the envisaged scenarios distributed?
The central scenario receives a 55 % probability, against 25 % for the bearish scenario and 20 % for the bullish scenario. This distribution gives more weight to the unfavorable outcome than to the favorable one, consistent with the negative score of -5,5 and the weak signal issued on 02/09/2026.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-K (SEC · 10-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:28 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (ORCL) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology