Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) shows a weak signal as of 2 September 2026, with a 3/3 vote and a score of 1,5. The main reason lies in the mechanical nature of the two-year rise and in the exclusion of the stock from the four favored baskets in a neutral macroeconomic regime.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +1.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : negative, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes a probable accounting manipulation profile (Beneish M-Score above the -1,78 threshold) | -3.0 |
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
The thesis credits PAAS with a value profile, a high Piotroski score and an M-Score below the threshold. The two-year advance nevertheless remains mechanical, driven by overnight sessions rather than by institutional momentum. The neutral macroeconomic regime penalizes rate-sensitive stocks and excludes PAAS from the four favored baskets. The signal remains weak in the absence of live confirmation of the second quarter of 2026 and of the BCE decision of 10 September.
Bull case
The main bullish argument rests on the dual exposure to gold and silver in a neutral regime. Accounting fundamentals look sound, with a high Piotroski score. The 12-1 momentum is positive. The metals basket also benefits from a bullish weighting of 0,55 and from the 40 % rise in gold since the start of 2025.
Bear case
The main bearish argument comes from the fragile breakdown of the two-year performance: the overnight component gains 183,6 % while the intraday component loses 6,2 %. Six-month momentum is doubly negative. The sector is covered by none of the favored baskets. The BCE decision of 10 September presents a risk for rate-sensitive stocks, and a beta of 2,11 amplifies pullbacks in the event of stress.
Scenarios
Three scenarios frame the analysis. The bullish scenario, with a 30 % probability, assumes an accommodative BCE decision and a stable silver price, with a recovery to follow. The central scenario, at 50 %, corresponds to the absence of a sector catalyst and to a sideways movement. The bearish scenario, at 20 %, contemplates a marked pullback that could go as far as the invalidation zone.
Risks
The identified risks combine a beta of 2,11, hidden concentration and volatility 19 % higher, all factors that worsen pullbacks in the event of market stress. The BCE decision of 10 September warrants close attention for this rate-sensitive stock. Invalidation of the thesis is assessed in qualitative terms: an exit through the bottom of the two-year range, synonymous with a pronounced pullback, would call the analysis into question.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| T3 2026 results and full-year silver production guidance |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | not published | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What signal emerges for Pan American Silver?
The signal of 2 September 2026 is weak, with a 3/3 vote and a score of 1,5. This level reflects a value profile with a high Piotroski score, but a two-year rise deemed mechanical and a neutral macroeconomic regime that excludes the stock from the four favored baskets. Verification of the second quarter of 2026 and the BCE decision remain decisive.
Why is the two-year performance deemed fragile?
The breakdown of the two-year rise shows an overnight component up 183,6 % and an intraday component down 6,2 %. This structure suggests a mechanical advance concentrated outside trading hours rather than institutional accumulation. Six-month momentum, doubly negative, reinforces this cautious reading.
Which elements support the bullish thesis?
The main argument rests on the dual exposure to gold and silver in a neutral macroeconomic regime. Accounting fundamentals are sound, with a high Piotroski score. The 12-1 momentum is positive. Finally, the metals basket benefits from a bullish weighting of 0,55 and from the 40 % rise in gold since the start of 2025.
What are the main identified risks?
The BCE decision of 10 September warrants close attention for a rate-sensitive stock. A beta of 2,11 amplifies pullbacks in the event of market stress. Hidden concentration and volatility 19 % higher aggravate this risk profile. An exit through the bottom of the two-year range would invalidate the thesis.
How are the three scenarios distributed?
The bullish scenario shows a probability of 30 %. It assumes an accommodative BCE decision and a stable silver price, with a recovery to follow. The central scenario, at 50 %, corresponds to the absence of a sector catalyst and to a sideways movement. The bearish scenario, at 20 %, contemplates a marked pullback that could go as far as the invalidation zone.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:25 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (PAAS) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: ATI Inc. (ATI)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology