Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal published on 2 September 2026 on Parker-Hannifin Corporation is weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a score of 2,0. It reflects above all a technical deterioration, with a 50-session moving average broken at -4,1 % and a six-month in-session cumulative at -30,4 %, which contrasts with the group's fundamental quality.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +2.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : negative, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Parker-Hannifin shows the profile of a quality industrial company compounding value over a long period, with a defensible competitive advantage in aerospace and free cash flow close to 18 % of revenue. The technical reading contrasts with this profile: the in-session flow structure is negative and the break of the 50-session moving average signals a distribution phase. The stock also sits outside the favoured zones of the prevailing macro regime, combines exposure to US tariffs and sensitivity to the automotive and manufacturing cycle, and has no direct positive catalyst during the month of September.
Bull case
The bull argument rests on the Win Strategy operational programme, pricing power historically above 3 % per year and record order books at Boeing and Airbus. These elements support structurally high free cash flow, around 18 % of revenue. Diluted earnings per share have grown for five consecutive years and the motion control activities give the group indirect exposure to electrification.
Bear case
The bear argument rests first on flows: the six-month in-session cumulative comes out at -30,4 % and has destroyed 78 % of the gain recorded out of session, while the 50-session moving average is broken at -4,1 %. Added to this are pressure from Section 232 tariffs and Trump reciprocity measures on steel and aluminium costs, as well as the stock's absence from the favoured zones of the macro regime, namely semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electrification, energy and defensive healthcare.
Scenarios
The bull scenario, with a probability of 25 %, rests on a rebound after the BCE and an aerospace reacceleration, towards 1 100 USD. The central scenario, with a probability of 50 %, describes a consolidation between 900 and 1 000 USD below the 50-session moving average. The bear scenario, with a probability of 25 %, corresponds to a break of the 200-session moving average, towards 820 USD.
Risks
The thesis would be invalidated by a clear break of the 200-session moving average. A deterioration in the financial profile, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio above 3,5 times in fiscal year 2026, would constitute a second invalidation factor. A major DOJ or EPA proceeding related to PFAS, with a severity of at least 3, would represent a significant regulatory risk. Finally, the degraded technical signal calls for sustained attention to the continuation of the trend.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 0.98 %
- Days to cover
- 1.67
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Meggitt integration investor day | |
| T1 FY27 results |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | not published | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the signal published on Parker-Hannifin?
The signal is weak, for a vote of 3/3 and a score of 2,0. The group's industrial quality, illustrated by free cash flow close to 18 % of revenue, does not offset the technical deterioration: 50-session moving average broken at -4,1 % and a six-month in-session cumulative at -30,4 %. The stock also trades outside the favoured zones of the macro regime.
Which strengths support the bull thesis?
The Win Strategy programme, pricing power historically above 3 % per year and record order books at Boeing and Airbus support structurally high free cash flow, around 18 % of revenue. Diluted earnings per share have grown for five consecutive years. The motion control activities offer indirect exposure to electrification.
Which elements weigh on the stock?
The six-month in-session cumulative reaches -30,4 % and has destroyed 78 % of the gain recorded out of session, a sign of a distribution phase. Section 232 tariffs and Trump reciprocity measures weigh on steel and aluminium costs. The group, which is cyclical, depends on the automotive and manufacturing sectors and sits outside the favoured macro zones.
Which events would invalidate the analysis?
A break of the 200-session moving average would constitute the technical invalidation of the thesis. On the fundamental side, a net debt to EBITDA ratio above 3,5 times in fiscal year 2026 would weaken the reading, as would a major DOJ or EPA proceeding concerning PFAS, with a severity of at least 3. No direct positive catalyst is identified in September.
What do the quantified scenarios describe?
The bull scenario, with a probability of 25 %, combines a rebound after the BCE and an aerospace reacceleration towards 1 100 USD. The central scenario, with a probability of 50 %, describes a consolidation between 900 and 1 000 USD below the 50-session moving average. The bear scenario, with a probability of 25 %, retains a break of the 200-session moving average towards 820 USD. These assumptions remain projections, with no recommendation value.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-K (SEC · 10-K)
- — 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement … (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:20 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (PH) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: AMETEK, Inc. (AME)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology