Sopra Steria Group SA (SOP.PA): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal on Sopra Steria Group is weak, with a score of 4,0 and a vote of 1/1. It is explained mainly by the lack of validation of the three layers of analysis and by a neutral macro context at 0,55, without directional orientation.
- Current signal
- weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)
- Deterministic score
- +4.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
The case presents structural strengths: a durable competitive advantage in IT services (SSII) and exposure to artificial intelligence as well as to defence. However, none of the three layers of analysis could be validated under real conditions. The macro signal, neutral at 0,55, offers no direction. The qualitative risk profile, marked by a gap between session and intraday performance over two years, a cyber incident precedent in 2023 and rate sensitivity with the BCE at 2,25 %, does not make it possible to validate the thesis without minimal visibility on 2025/2026 organic growth, margins, free cash flow and published guidance.
Bull case
The bull argument rests on structural exposure to artificial intelligence, digital technology and the public and defence sectors (UE Act card). The institutional refocusing of intraday flows observed over six months provides a second support. Finally, the 0,3 % financial transaction tax applicable to French large caps represents contained friction.
Bear case
The bear argument highlights a gap between session and intraday performance of -13,9 % over two years, a typical signature of a distribution phase. The 2023 cyber incident precedent, with an impact of tens of millions of euros, must be factored into the risk premium. SSII valuations already appear repriced on the IA theme, a restrictive BCE at 2,25 % raises the cost of debt, and no visibility exists on the figures for fiscal year 2025 and for S1 2026 as of 02/09/2026.
Scenarios
The bull scenario (35 %) describes a range of 195-210 EUR, based on a catch-up driven by a clean S1 2026 and a more accommodative BCE. The central scenario (45 %) places the stock in a range of 160-185 EUR, in consolidation after the rise in valuations linked to the IA theme. The bear scenario (20 %) assumes a maximum loss towards 130-140 EUR, a decline of about 22 %, if S1 2026 disappoints and if the BCE rises to 2,50 %.
Risks
A break below the 200-session moving average and the 2024 floor would invalidate the thesis. The repetition of a cyber incident comparable to the one in 2023 is an identified threat, as is a rise in the BCE rate towards 2,50 %, which would raise the cost of debt. A disappointing first half of 2026 would call the trajectory into question. Moreover, the -13,9 % gap between session and intraday performance points to a distribution risk, and the lack of visibility on fiscal year 2025 figures keeps uncertainty alive.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Résultats T3 2026 | |
| Cap vers UBS European Tech Conference |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the current signal on Sopra Steria?
The signal is weak, with a score of 4,0 and a vote of 1/1. It is explained by the lack of validation of the three layers of analysis and by a neutral macro signal at 0,55. The case retains structural strengths, but the combination of a 2023 cyber incident precedent and sensitivity to BCE rates at 2,25 % deprives the analysis of sufficiently solid elements for a more assertive signal.
Which elements support the bull thesis?
The bull thesis rests on structural exposure to artificial intelligence, digital technology and the public and defence sectors, within the framework of the UE Act card. It also benefits from the institutional refocusing of intraday flows observed over six months. Finally, the 0,3 % financial transaction tax on French large caps represents contained friction.
Why do the bear risks weigh on the analysis?
Several factors feed the caution. The -13,9 % gap between session and intraday performance over two years points to a distribution phase. The 2023 cyber incident precedent, with an impact of tens of millions of euros, must be factored into the risk premium. SSII valuations have already been repriced on the IA theme, and the BCE, restrictive at 2,25 %, raises the cost of debt.
How are the envisaged scenarios distributed?
The central scenario shows the highest probability, at 45 %. It describes a consolidation after the rise in valuations on the artificial intelligence theme. The bull scenario weighs 35 %, driven by a clean S1 2026 and a more accommodative BCE. The bear scenario, at 20 %, assumes a disappointing S1 2026 and a BCE rising to 2,50 %.
What would invalidate the thesis?
The thesis would be invalidated by a break below the 200-session moving average and the 2024 floor. A disappointing first half of 2026 would be another source of questioning, just like a rise in the BCE rate towards 2,50 %. Finally, the total lack of visibility on the figures for fiscal year 2025 and for S1 2026 as of 02/09/2026 is a decisive factor of uncertainty.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — Total du nombre de droits de vote et du capital / Information relative au nombre total de droits de vote et d'actions composant le capital (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
- — Total number of voting rights and capital / Information on the total number of voting rights and the number of shares making up the capital (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
- — Total du nombre de droits de vote et du capital / Information relative au nombre total de droits de vote et d'actions composant le capital (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
- — Total number of voting rights and capital / Information on the total number of voting rights and the number of shares making up the capital (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
- — Informations privilégiées / Opérations de l'émetteur (acquisitions, cessions...) (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 01:18 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (SOP.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology