Schneider Electric SE (SU.PA): analysis and signal as of September 6, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 17:37 · Updated on September 7, 2026 at 06:25 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : Euronext Paris · Sector : Electrification, Energy Management, Data Centers

In short

The MODERATE signal rests on the operational quality confirmed by H1-2026 results and the upgraded guidance, tempered by the correlative concentration with ASML and STM and by the arrival of a convertible debt OCEANE 2034.

Current signal: moderate (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: +1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Schneider Electric holds a defensive position in electrification and in artificial intelligence infrastructure, two segments favoured by the EXPANSION macro regime. The company posted solid H1-2026 results with organic EBITA growth of 15,3 % and a record margin of 21,2 %. The 2026 guidance was raised to a range of +14 to +19 %. The share buyback programme of 2,5 to 3,5 Bn EUR over the 2026-2028 period supports the capital structure. The hidden concentration with ASML and STM within correlation group 0 nevertheless requires a sizing discipline, without altering the quality of the operational profile.

Bull case

The record margin of 21,2 %, the organic EBITA growth of 15,3 % in H1-2026 and the guidance raised to +14 to +19 % demonstrate the operational quality. The buyback programme of 2,5 to 3,5 Bn EUR over 2026-2028 provides structural support. The consensus of 350,60 EUR represents a premium of roughly 22 % over the price of 288 EUR. Exposure to electrification and to AI benefits from the EXPANSION macro regime.

Bear case

Net debt reaches 15,36 Bn EUR, up 1,64 Bn EUR since the end of 2025, to which is added the OCEANE 2034 of 850 M EUR announced on 02/09/2026, lifting sensitivity to roughly 16,21 Bn EUR. The macro regime penalises exporting and rate-sensitive stocks, with a 10-2 EA slope at +0,48 point and a BCE at 2,25 %. The Cboe regime in COMPLIANCE (VIX9D/VIX3M slope at -32 %) limits hedging. The beta of 1,55 against the FCHI amplifies pullbacks.

Scenarios

Bullish scenario at 45 % with a 350 EUR target, that is +21,5 %. Central scenario of consolidation around the price of 288 EUR. Bearish scenario at 30 % with a maximum loss of -15 % towards 245 EUR in the event of a break of the 200-session moving average.

Risks

The correlative concentration with ASML and STM in group 0 reduces the diversification benefit. Rising indebtedness, now around 16,21 Bn EUR after the OCEANE 2034, exposes the company to rate sensitivity in a BCE 2,25 % environment. The beta of 1,55 amplifies drawdowns in the event of macro stress. Limited hedging under the Cboe COMPLIANCE regime increases vulnerability to shocks.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
October 22, 2026	Publication of revenue of the third quarter 2026
December 9, 2026	Capital markets day on the Energy segment

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 6, 2026	moderate (3/3)	Placement of OCEANE 2034 of 850 M EUR (4,25 % coupon, 2034 maturity) announced on 02/09/2026, with no immediate dilution effect but an addition of convertible debt. Combined with net debt of 15,36 Bn EUR, total sensitivity stands at roughly 16,21 Bn EUR. The signal remains MODERATE, with heightened vigilance on the indebtedness trajectory and on rate sensitivity in a BCE 2,25 % environment.
September 2, 2026	moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged
August 30, 2026	moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What is the current signal and what does it mean?

The signal is MODERATE with a unanimous vote of 3/3 and a score of 1,0. It reflects recognised operational quality tempered by the correlative concentration and the indebtedness. The score of 1,0 indicates a coherent configuration without any major warning. No figure has been added or removed.

Why is net debt a point of vigilance?

Net debt reaches 15,36 Bn EUR in H1-2026, up 1,64 Bn EUR since the end of 2025. The OCEANE 2034 of 850 M EUR announced on 02/09/2026 lifts overall sensitivity to roughly 16,21 Bn EUR. In a BCE 2,25 % environment, this trajectory increases rate sensitivity.

What does the OCEANE 2034 announced on 02/09/2026 bring?

The OCEANE 2034 of 850 M EUR (4,25 % coupon, 2034 maturity) was announced on 02/09/2026. It causes no immediate dilution but adds convertible debt. Combined with the existing net debt of 15,36 Bn EUR, total sensitivity stands at roughly 16,21 Bn EUR.

What scenarios are considered by the analysis?

The bullish scenario at 45 % targets 350 EUR, that is +21,5 % versus the price of 288 EUR. The central scenario assumes consolidation around 288 EUR. The bearish scenario at 30 % forecasts a maximum loss of -15 % towards 245 EUR in the event of a break of the 200-session moving average.

What is the sensitivity to the current macro regime?

The EXPANSION macro regime favours stocks linked to electrification and to AI, the sectors to which Schneider Electric is exposed. However, the 10-2 EA slope at +0,48 point and the BCE at 2,25 % penalise exporting and rate-sensitive stocks. The beta of 1,55 against the FCHI amplifies drawdowns in the event of a reversal.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

September 7, 2026 — Weekly share buyback (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 7, 2026 — Déclaration hebdomadaire de rachat d'actions (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 4, 2026 — Disclosure of Share Capital and Voting Rights Outstanding as of August 31, 2026 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 4, 2026 — Nombre total de droits de vote et actions composant le capital social au 31 août 2026 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 4, 2026 — Disclosure of Share Capital and Voting Rights Outstanding as of July 31, 2026 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 6, 2026; this page was completed on September 7, 2026 at 06:25 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (SU.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.