Teradyne, Inc. (TER): analysis and signal as of September 4, 2026
In short
The weighted deterministic signal comes out weak, with a vote of 2/3 and an uncalculated score. The read remains neutral, for lack of a verified company-specific catalyst and usable second-quarter 2026 results.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 2/3)
- Deterministic score
- +0.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : neutral, price : neutral, risks : –
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower) | -1.5 |
| penalizes excessive volatility (ruin risk), survival comes first, irreversible loss outweighs the optimization of return | -1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Teradyne is a semiconductor test equipment maker, structurally cyclical. The semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector is favored from a macroeconomic point of view, with a weight of 0,58, but no company-specific catalyst is identifiable. The short-term technical read is degraded by a divergence of ten to one between overnight sessions and intraday sessions. The second-quarter 2026 results are not verifiable and the revenue split between memory, artificial intelligence, automotive and industrial remains without visibility. No margin of safety can therefore be quantified.
Bull case
The semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector benefits from macroeconomic favor. Teradyne retains a dominant exposure to memory testers and SoC testers, two segments that benefit from the rebound in test demand linked to artificial intelligence. The company holds a leadership position with a wide competitive moat, supported by patents, an installed base and a critical mass maintained for about twenty years. Share repurchase programs have historically been active and the balance sheet, structurally in positive net cash, limits the extreme downside scenario.
Bear case
The cyclicality of capital expenditure exposes Teradyne to margin compression if memory orders weaken after the artificial intelligence peak. Universal Robots is experiencing a marked decline, which weighs on the industrial segment. The valuation appears stretched after a cumulative advance of 151,5 % over two years in overnight sessions. The intraday divergence over six months, at -14,0 %, suggests a distribution. Exposure to sanctions and controversies cannot be verified in real time.
Scenarios
The probabilities remain divided. A bullish scenario, at 30 %, assumes a rebound in test demand linked to artificial intelligence, with a rise of 25 %. A central scenario, at 45 %, corresponds to consolidation within a range of 320 to 380 dollars, without a marked trend. A bearish scenario, at 25 %, anticipates a compression of memory capital expenditure, with a decline of 30 %.
Risks
The cyclicality of semiconductor manufacturers' investment spending constitutes the main source of risk. A deterioration in memory orders after the artificial intelligence peak could compress margins. Universal Robots' decline adds an industrial risk. The already stretched valuation, after the advance in overnight sessions, reduces protection against a reversal. The absence of real-time verification of sanctions and controversies completes the list of uncertainties.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 4.50 %
- Days to cover
- 2.87
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-31
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-09-12)
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (2/3) | No new quantified fact nor verified catalyst since the previous verdict. The weighted deterministic signal remains +0,00. The three analysis layers, fundamentals, technical and risks, remain silent or divergent, which keeps the read neutral. |
Frequently asked questions
Why is Teradyne's signal weak?
The signal comes out weak because no verified company-specific catalyst supports the share. The second-quarter 2026 results cannot be consulted and the revenue split remains unclear. The technical picture is degraded by a divergence of ten to one between overnight sessions and intraday sessions. The quantified score is not calculated.
What elements support the bullish read?
Test demand linked to artificial intelligence benefits Teradyne's memory and SoC testers. The semiconductor sector benefits from a favorable macroeconomic context. The leadership position, the wide competitive moat, the installed base and the critical mass over twenty years support the thesis. Active share repurchase programs and a balance sheet in positive net cash limit the extreme risk.
What elements support the bearish read?
The cyclicality of capital expenditure exposes the company to margin compression. Universal Robots is in marked decline, which weighs on industrial activity. The valuation is stretched after a cumulative advance of 151,5 % in overnight sessions over two years. The intraday divergence over six months, at -14,0 %, can signal a distribution of shares.
What scenarios are considered by the analysis?
The bullish scenario, with a probability of 30 %, relies on a rebound in test activity linked to artificial intelligence and a rise of 25 %. The central scenario, at 45 %, expects consolidation within a range of 320 to 380 dollars. The bearish scenario, at 25 %, anticipates a compression of memory spending and a decline of 30 %.
Why can no margin of safety be quantified?
The second-quarter 2026 results are not verifiable. The share of revenue coming from memory, artificial intelligence, automotive and industry is not known. No company-specific catalyst is identifiable. The technical read is divided between overnight sessions and intraday sessions. The analysis therefore does not have the elements needed to estimate a prudent valuation.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 4, 2026; this page was completed on September 5, 2026 at 19:40 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (TER) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology