TJX Companies Inc (TJX): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 20:24 · Updated on September 3, 2026 at 23:01 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Retail Trade

In short

The signal is weak with a vote of 3/3 and a score of 4,5. The fundamentals hold thanks to a fifth consecutive quarter above guidance and raised forecasts, but the technical break below the 50-session and 200-session moving averages and below the 52-week low signals institutional distribution in an unfavorable macro regime.

Current signal: weak (vote 3/3) divergence
Deterministic score: +4.5 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : negative, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat	+2.0
favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score)	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns	+1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

TJX Companies is stringing together a fifth consecutive quarter above guidance, with annual forecasts raised on 19/08/2026. The price nevertheless breaks its reference levels below the 50-session moving average and the 200-session moving average, with a 52-week low crossed. A negative intraday flow of 18,8 % over six months signals institutional distribution. The off-price model benefits from the shift in customers, but the macro regime penalizes the sector. This divergence between solid fundamentals and a deteriorated technical structure explains the weakness of the signal.

Bull case

The second-quarter FY2027 results, published on 19/08/2026, exceed expectations across all indicators. Revenue reaches 15,18 Mds USD, up 5,4 %. Comparable store sales rise by 4 %, versus 2 to 3 % announced. The pre-tax margin stands at 11,9 %, versus 11,4 to 11,5 % expected. Management raises the full-year earnings per share to 5,31-5,36 USD. This streak strengthens the off-price model, which captures the shift of customers toward discounted offers.

Bear case

The stock closed on 02/09/2026 below its 50-session moving average and below its 200-session moving average, below its 52-week low, and the entire two-year performance comes from moves outside trading sessions. The central divergence sets a consensus still showing potential of 20 to 30 % against a price breaking its supports, a classic pattern of delayed revisions. The valuation carries a premium of 4 to 6 PER points over Ross and Burlington. Any imperfect execution in the second half would be punished more severely than for peers, in a macro regime that penalizes discretionary consumption.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario, with a probability of around 25 %, assumes a regaining of the 200-session moving average followed by a move toward analyst targets. The central scenario, estimated at around 50 %, describes a consolidation until the third-quarter FY2027 results, expected around mid-November. The bearish scenario, at around 25 %, rests on a close below the invalidation threshold for 5 consecutive sessions.

Risks

Confidence in the analysis remains limited by layers flagged as possibly outdated, with price and short interest data predating 02/09/2026. Invalidation of the thesis would be observed through a close below the invalidation threshold for 5 consecutive sessions or through a failure to move back above the 200-session moving average. The premium of 4 to 6 PER points over Ross and Burlington exposes the stock to a harsher penalty than its peers in the event of imperfect execution in the second half, in a macro regime that penalizes discretionary consumption.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 1.79 %
Days to cover: 3.85
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
November 18, 2026	Q3 fiscal 2026 results

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 3, 2026	weak (3/3)	No new dated fact since the verdict of 2026-08-31. The price on 02/09/2026 remains above the invalidation threshold, the deterministic score stays identical at +4,50 with the same rules triggered, and the results of 19/08/2026 were already incorporated into the previous verdict.
August 31, 2026	weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

Why is the signal weak despite results above expectations?

The results of 19/08/2026 mark a fifth consecutive quarter above guidance, with annual forecasts raised. However, the price breaks its reference levels below the MM50, the MM200 and the 52-week low. A negative intraday flow of 18,8 % over six months signals institutional distribution. The macro regime also penalizes discretionary consumption, which justifies a weak signal despite solid fundamentals.

What do the second-quarter FY2027 results published on 19/08/2026 reveal?

Revenue reaches 15,18 Mds USD, up 5,4 %. Comparable store sales gain 4 %, versus 2 to 3 % announced. The pre-tax margin stands at 11,9 %, versus 11,4 to 11,5 % expected. Management also raises the full-year earnings per share to 5,31-5,36 USD. These figures confirm the ability of the off-price model to capture the shift in customers.

Which scenarios are considered for the coming months?

Three trajectories stand out. The bullish scenario, with a probability of around 25 %, assumes a regaining of the 200-session moving average followed by a move toward analyst targets. The central scenario, at around 50 %, describes a consolidation until the third-quarter FY2027 results, expected around mid-November. The bearish scenario, at around 25 %, rests on a close below the invalidation threshold for 5 consecutive sessions.

What are the main risks identified?

Confidence remains limited by layers flagged as possibly outdated, with price and short interest data predating 02/09/2026. The macro regime penalizes discretionary consumption, an exposed sector for the stock. The valuation carries a premium of 4 to 6 PER points over Ross and Burlington, so any imperfect execution in the second half would be punished more severely than for peers.

What does the negative intraday flow of 18,8 % over six months mean?

This flow measures activity carried out during trading sessions over six months. A negative reading of 18,8 % indicates recurrent downward pressure during sessions, interpreted as a sign of institutional distribution. In other words, large players are ceding their shares during market hours. This dynamic contradicts the strength of the fundamentals and weighs on the signal, despite the favorable vote of 3/3.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 28, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
August 19, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
June 11, 2026 — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
May 29, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
May 20, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:01 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (TJX) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.