Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026

Published on September 8, 2026 at 00:31 · Updated on September 8, 2026 at 00:31 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Energy Minerals

In short

The signal is moderate with a vote of 3/3. The main reason is the exceptional performance of the second quarter 2026 which has already been integrated into the current price.

Current signal: moderate (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: +0.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Valero delivered an exceptional second quarter 2026 with a net income of 3.7 B$ and an earnings per share of 12.62 $. This performance exceeds that of the same quarter in 2025 by 417 %. The refining margin stood at 25.30 $/barrel. The macroeconomic regime favors the energy sector. The stock has already integrated this recovery. The current price is at 370 $ against an average target of 332 $. The Cboe risk regime is in complacency. This configuration reduces the margin of safety. The thesis is justified on a pullback towards 310 to 320 $ or after confirmation of EIA stocks for the third quarter.

Bull case

The net income for the second quarter 2026 amounts to 3.7 B$ or 12.62 $/share. Adjusted EBITDA reaches 1.7 B$ compared to 1.0 B$ in the second quarter 2025. A buyback plan of 5.0 B$ has been announced. The refining margin progresses by 3.53 $/barrel over the year. The macroeconomic regime is in expansion. The bullish weighting for energy is 0.58.

Bear case

The price of 370.72 $ exceeds the average analyst target of 332.40 $ by 11.5 %. The PER of 12.05 is high for a cyclical refiner in a record profit phase. The Cboe risk regime is in complacency. The VIX9D/VIX3M ratio stands at 11.97/17.61 with a slope of -32 %. Insider sales indicate profit taking. Fraser sold for 10.06 M$ on 03/09. Fisher sold for 0.40 M$ on 25/08.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario has a probability of 30 % with a target at 395 $. The central scenario has a probability of 50 % with a consolidation between 330 and 370 $. The bearish scenario has a probability of 20 % with a maximum loss of -25 % towards 278 $. This level corresponds to the 200-session moving average.

Risks

The price exceeds the average analyst target. The PER is high for a cyclical refiner. The Cboe risk regime is in complacency. The slope of the VIX9D/VIX3M ratio is negative. Insider sales signal profit taking. The margin of safety is reduced.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 3.37 %
Days to cover: 3.34
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 7, 2026	moderate (3/3)	Personal analysis, not a recommendation.
September 4, 2026	moderate (2/3)	First verdict for this value, no memorized precedent.

Frequently asked questions

What is the net income for the second quarter 2026?

The net income amounts to 3.7 B$ or 12.62 $/share. This performance represents an increase of 417 % compared to the second quarter 2025. The refining margin stood at 25.30 $/barrel. The macroeconomic regime favors the energy sector.

Why is the signal moderate?

The stock has already integrated the earnings recovery. The price of 370 $ exceeds the average target of 332 $. The Cboe risk regime is in complacency. This configuration reduces the margin of safety. The thesis is justified on a pullback towards 310 to 320 $ or after confirmation of EIA stocks for the third quarter.

What are the probable scenarios?

What is the main risk?

The price of 370.72 $ exceeds the average analyst target by 11.5 %. The PER of 12.05 is high for a cyclical refiner. The Cboe risk regime is in complacency. Insider sales indicate profit taking. Fraser sold for 10.06 M$ and Fisher for 0.40 M$.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

July 30, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
July 30, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
July 16, 2026 — 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (SEC · 8-K)
May 8, 2026 — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 5.07 Sub… (SEC · 8-K)
April 30, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 00:31 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (VLO) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.