Vulcan Materials Company (VMC): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026
In short
The system issues no signal on Vulcan Materials Company as of 03/09/2026, with a vote of 2/3 and a score of 1,0. This absence is explained mainly by the simultaneous break of the 50-session and 200-session moving averages and by a macro regime unfavourable to rate-sensitive cyclical stocks, despite solid fundamentals in the second quarter.
- Current signal
- no signal (vote 2/3)
- Deterministic score
- +1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : negative, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
Thesis
Vulcan Materials retains its status as the US aggregates leader, backed by a defensible structural competitive advantage, but the price configuration breaks the medium-term structure: the stock trades below its 50-session and 200-session moving averages and the macro regime of 03/09/2026 does not support rate-sensitive cyclicals. The system also notes a data inconsistency to clarify: a reference value input in its dashboard exceeds the highest price reached over 2024-2026, the stock having never gone above 270 USD, which suggests a probable input error. These elements lead to the absence of a signal, with the vote standing at 2/3 and the score at 1,0.
Bull case
The second quarter of 2026 shows revenue up 2,5 % and earnings per share up 5,7 %, two metrics above expectations, and the 2026 annual guidance has been reaffirmed. The favoured exposure to electrification, with data centres and critical mines, supports structural demand for aggregates. The geographic and regulatory advantage, based on extraction permits, remains defensible over twenty years.
Bear case
The stock has simultaneously broken below its 50-session moving average, standing 7,1 % below it, and its 200-session moving average, standing 8,2 % below it. The negative intraday drift over the past six months, with a 23,8 % decline during the US session against a 17,8 % gain outside the session, signals a loss of support from institutional investors. The valuation remains high, around 34,9 times earnings over the last twelve months, for a rate-sensitive cyclical. The materials sector is absent from the favoured lists and sits close to the penalised list, while the BCE raises its rates on 10/09 and the Fed under Warsh remains restrictive, a double headwind.
Scenarios
The bull scenario, with a probability of 25 %, rests on a reclaim of the 50-session moving average and on a market rotation toward value stocks. The central scenario, with a probability of 50 %, assumes the price evolves within a range around the technical pivot. The bear scenario, with a probability of 25 %, rests on confirmation of the technical break and on a contraction of margins.
Risks
The main risks lie in the negative factor momentum and in the rate-sensitive cyclical exposure, against a backdrop of simultaneous monetary tightening in Europe and the United States. The technical invalidation threshold, already tested on 02/09/2026, remains to be confirmed: a lasting close below this zone would mark the failure of the thesis. The high valuation also limits the margin for error in the event of a contraction of margins or a weakening of demand for aggregates.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 4.93 %
- Days to cover
- 6.98
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 report, aggregate volumes and margins | |
| US Election, read on federal infrastructure programs |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| no signal (2/3) | No change. No new dated fact (results, annual guidance, price, regulation) has occurred since the verdict of 01/09/2026. The mentions of possible obsolescence present in the fundamentals and risk sections of the verdict do not constitute a new fact. The price of 264 USD recorded on 02/09/2026 remains below the 50-session and 200-session moving averages, in the technical invalidation zone. This analysis is observational in nature and does not constitute personalised advice. | |
| no signal (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the system's verdict on Vulcan Materials?
The system issues no signal. The vote stands at 2/3 and the score at 1,0. This absence is explained by the simultaneous break of the 50-session and 200-session moving averages, by a macro regime that does not support rate-sensitive cyclical stocks, and by a data inconsistency flagged in the dashboard, to be verified before any interpretation.
Why no signal despite solid results?
The second-quarter 2026 fundamentals support the case: revenue up 2,5 %, earnings per share up 5,7 %, two metrics above expectations and reaffirmed annual guidance. The price configuration carries more weight in the verdict, however: a break of the 50-session and 200-session moving averages, a negative intraday drift over the past six months and a double monetary headwind, with a hawkish BCE and a restrictive Fed.
What underpins the group's competitive advantage?
The group remains the US aggregates leader. Its competitive advantage rests on geographic and regulatory protection that is defensible over twenty years, with extraction permits forming a durable barrier to access. The favoured exposure to electrification, data centres and critical mines, supports structural demand for aggregates and consolidates the business base across public and private investment cycles.
What risks weigh on the valuation?
The stock trades at about 34,9 times earnings over the last twelve months, a high level for a rate-sensitive cyclical. The intraday drift has remained negative for six months: a 23,8 % decline during the US session against a 17,8 % gain outside the session. This profile signals a withdrawal by institutional investors, while the BCE raises its rates on 10/09 and the Fed remains restrictive.
What data anomaly does the system flag?
The verdict notes a data inconsistency: a reference value input in the system exceeds the highest price ever reached by the stock over 2024-2026, capped at 270 USD. The system reads this as a probable input error, to be clarified before any interpretation. This anomaly partly explains the absence of a signal as of 03/09/2026, without calling into question the fundamentals described elsewhere.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 5.07 Sub… (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 21:59 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (VMC) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: ATI Inc. (ATI)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology