Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA): analysis and signal as of September 6, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 19:33 · Updated on September 6, 2026 at 18:59 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : Euronext Paris · Sector : Electronic Technology

In short

The signal is moderate for Dassault Aviation SA, with a current deterministic score of -1,00. The order backlog and business growth support the thesis, but their significance is limited by an unfavorable share price trend and a macroeconomic environment that weighs on exporters and interest-rate-sensitive stocks.

Current signal: moderate (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: -1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower)	-1.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Dassault Aviation combines a record order backlog of 45,4 Md EUR, equivalent to ~4,5 years of revenue, with growth of 45 % in S1 2026, against the backdrop of the European defense cycle. However, the share price remains below its moving averages, and the Cboe regime indicates complacency characterized by low hedging levels. The BCE decision on 10/09 represents a catalyst in an environment unfavorable to exporters and interest-rate-sensitive stocks.

Bull case

The order backlog totals 45,4 Md EUR and includes 220 Rafale and 83 Falcon. Revenue in S1 2026 rises by +45 %, while EBITDA increases by +121 %. The revenue forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at >8,5 Md EUR. These factors support the thesis based on business visibility and the European defense cycle.

Bear case

The share price of 277,40 EUR is below MM50/MM200, while the analysis identifies negative intraday flow and a change of -21,1 % over 6 months. The order backlog declines by 1,2 Md EUR compared with the end of 2025. The macroeconomic environment weighs on exporters and interest-rate-sensitive stocks, with a BCE rate of 2,25 %. The low hedging levels observed on Cboe accompany a current deterministic score of -1,00.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario corresponds to a share price increase, consistent with the arguments relating to the order backlog and business growth. The central scenario describes stabilization or a limited increase. The bearish scenario envisages a share price decline, in the context of the technical and macroeconomic weaknesses identified.

Risks

The risks identified in the arguments concern share price weakness below its moving averages, the decline in the order backlog and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. The BCE decision on 10/09 represents a source of uncertainty, while the complacency measured on Cboe signals low hedging levels. The risk field contains no further discussion.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
October 23, 2026	Q3 2026 publication. Additional Rafale orders expected

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 6, 2026	moderate (3/3)	Unchanged.
September 2, 2026	moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged
August 31, 2026	moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

Why does the signal remain moderate despite business growth?

The moderate signal reflects the coexistence of business growth and factors unfavorable to the stock. The order backlog and revenue growth support the industrial thesis. However, the share price remains below its moving averages, while the macroeconomic environment weighs on exporters and interest-rate-sensitive stocks.

Which factors support business visibility?

The order backlog of 45,4 Md EUR represents ~4,5 years of revenue and includes 220 Rafale and 83 Falcon. This visibility is accompanied by revenue growth of +45 % in S1 2026 and EBITDA growth of +121 %. The revenue forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at >8,5 Md EUR.

Which factors weaken the stock market assessment of the company?

The share price of 277,40 EUR remains below MM50/MM200, which characterizes the technical weakness highlighted in the analysis. The order backlog also declines by 1,2 Md EUR compared with the end of 2025. These factors are compounded by a macroeconomic environment unfavorable to exporters, interest rate sensitivity and low hedging levels observed on Cboe.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

September 9, 2026 — Dassault Aviation: Total number of shares and voting rights - 07 09 26 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 9, 2026 — Dassault Aviation : Nombre d'actions et droits de vote - 07 09 26 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 7, 2026 — Dassault Aviation: Reduction of capital by cancellation of treasury shares (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 7, 2026 — Dassault Aviation : Réduction de capital par voie d’annulation d’actions propres (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)
September 3, 2026 — Dassault Aviation : Nombre d'actions et droits de vote - 31 08 26 (AMF · Informations réglementées continues)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 6, 2026; this page was completed on September 6, 2026 at 18:59 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (AM.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.