Amphenol Corporation Class A (APH): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026
In short
The signal is weak with a score of 4.0 out of 10. High valuation and macroeconomic risks weigh on the bull thesis despite record operating results.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 2/3)
- Deterministic score
- +4.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
The company displays a strong quality profile thanks to a broad market position and a high return on invested capital. Revenue grows by 55 % year-over-year, driven by exposure to data centers and artificial intelligence. The guidance for the third quarter of 2026 exceeds consensus with an adjusted earnings per share of 1.40 to 1.42 dollars against 1.26 dollars expected. The macroeconomic regime favors semiconductors but penalizes exports and interest rate sensitive values. This dynamic partially contradicts the bull thesis.
Bull case
The second quarter of 2026 records a record revenue of 8.8 billion dollars up 55 % year-over-year. The guidance for the third quarter of 2026 is above consensus. Exposure to artificial intelligence and data centers represents 4.2 billion dollars of revenue in the second quarter of 2026. Short interest remains low at 1.22 % of the float. The macroeconomic regime supports semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
Bear case
The twelve month price-earnings ratio stands at 40.34 while the sector is between 25 and 30. The price is at minus 52.4 % from its 52 week high of 89.50 dollars after the split. Inflation in the United States reaches 3.5 % off target. The slope of the 10 and 2 year yield curve shows an increase of 0.41 point. Exposure to exports and China faces pressure from the macroeconomic regime. A lawsuit opposes Credo to Amphenol.
Scenarios
The bull scenario presents a probability of 30 % with a target of 98.50 dollars according to analyst consensus. The central scenario keeps the price stable at 82.78 dollars with a growth of 57 % in operating surplus. The bear scenario shows a probability of 40 % with a maximum loss of 36.6 % towards a fair value of 52.46 dollars.
Risks
High valuation exposes the stock to a correction if growth does not hold. The upward slope of the yield curve increases the cost of capital. Persistent inflation weighs on margins. The ongoing lawsuit creates legal uncertainty. Exposure to exports to China remains sensitive to trade tensions and the macroeconomic regime.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 1.21 %
- Days to cover
- 2.62
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Fed meeting, hyperscaler investment cycle | |
| Estimated T3 2026 results, |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (2/3) | The last verdict of 2026-09-02 remains valid. No new fact justifies a change in signal or action. The analysis remains a personal analysis and not advice. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
Why is the signal weak despite record results?
The signal is weak because the valuation at 40.34 times earnings far exceeds the sector norm of 25 to 30. The price remains at minus 52.4 % from its 52 week high. The upward slope of the yield curve and inflation at 3.5 % weigh on prospects. These factors contradict the bull thesis despite the 55 % revenue growth.
What is the role of artificial intelligence in the thesis?
Exposure to artificial intelligence and data centers constitutes a major growth driver. Revenue linked to this segment reaches 4.2 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026. The current macroeconomic regime favors semiconductors and artificial intelligence. This dynamic supports the long term growth thesis despite pressures on interest rates.
What are the identified legal risks?
A lawsuit opposes Credo to Amphenol. This procedure creates uncertainty on future cash flows. The legal risk adds to valuation pressures and interest rate tensions. The outcome of the trial could impact the company margins or cash flow. The analysis retains this point as a major risk factor in the bear scenario.
How does the macroeconomic regime influence the stock?
The macroeconomic regime favors semiconductors and artificial intelligence. It penalizes exports and interest rate sensitive values. Inflation at 3.5 % and the upward slope of the yield curve weigh on valuation. This dynamic creates a tension between operating growth and market conditions. The weak signal reflects this tension between fundamentals and the macro context.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 8.01 Other Events (SEC · 8-K)
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 00:41 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (APH) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology