Curtiss-Wright Corp (CW): analysis and signal as of September 7, 2026
In short
The signal is weak with a score of 0,00. The high growth premium and the lack of balance sheet data offset the quarterly results that exceeded consensus.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +1.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation) | +0.5 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
Curtiss-Wright Corp operates in the aerospace and defense sector. The macroeconomic expansion regime favors this defensive sector. The price-to-earnings multiple of 21,9 and the growth ratio of 1,58 incorporate a growth premium. This premium is not guaranteed by the current context. The share buyback program extended to 260 M USD and the beat on second-quarter earnings per share support the bullish thesis. Market complacency and the gap between the current price and identified supports argue for a progressive rather than immediate approach.
Bull case
Second-quarter 2026 earnings per share reached 3,72 USD against a consensus of 3,61 USD. The 2026 guidance was raised with adjusted earnings per share moving from 14,85 to 15,35 USD. The share buyback program was extended from 160 M to 260 M USD. The aerospace and defense sector benefits from the macroeconomic expansion regime. Short interest remains low at 2,06 %. The twelve-month momentum is positive. The Piotroski score is high.
Bear case
The price-to-earnings multiple of 21,9 exceeds the five-year average of 18,4 and the sector average of 11,4. The growth ratio of 1,58 triggers a negative weighting. Second-quarter revenue missed consensus with 924 M USD against 926,2 M USD expected. The market risk regime is in complacency. Inflation in the United States at 3,5 % and the Federal Reserve rate at 3,63 % weigh on multiples. The price at 566,75 USD is above the identified support at 465,51 USD. Balance sheet data and free cash flow are missing.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario has a probability of 35 % with a target at 676 USD. The central scenario has a probability of 45 % with an oscillation between 540 and 600 USD over six months. The bearish scenario has a probability of 20 % with a maximum loss of 18 % in case of a test of the support at 465,51 USD.
Risks
The main risk lies in the gap between current valuation and fundamentals. The price-to-earnings multiple and the growth ratio incorporate high expectations. The lack of balance sheet data and free cash flow limits the analysis of financial solidity. Market complacency can reverse quickly. The missed consensus on revenue shows tension on earnings.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 2.06 %
- Days to cover
- 2.51
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| T3 2026 results and defense backlog | |
| Update on DOE SMR / Naval Nuclear Propulsion contract |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | Personal analysis, not a recommendation. | |
| weak (3/3) | No dated numerical data post-31/08/2026 is provided in the three layers compared to the verdict of 2026-08-31. The deterministic score remains at +0.00 with exactly the same rule-based weightings. The Fund layers | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged | |
| moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
Why is the signal weak despite good results?
The signal is weak because the deterministic score is at 0,00. The rule-based weightings offset each other. The high growth ratio weighs negatively. The lack of balance sheet data limits the analysis. Quarterly results above consensus are not enough to offset these factors.
What is the impact of the share buyback?
The share buyback program extended from 160 M to 260 M USD supports the bullish thesis. This program shows management confidence in the valuation. It reduces the number of shares outstanding. This can support future earnings per share. This is a fact from August 19, 2026.
Why is the price-to-earnings multiple a problem?
The multiple of 21,9 exceeds the five-year average of 18,4 and the sector average of 11,4. The growth ratio of 1,58 indicates a high growth premium. This premium is not guaranteed by the current macroeconomic regime. Inflation and interest rates weigh on multiples.
What are the identified supports?
The identified support is at 465,51 USD. The current price is at 566,75 USD. The gap between these two levels is significant. A break of this support would invalidate the bullish thesis. The bearish scenario forecasts a test of this level with a maximum loss of 18 %.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 7, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 01:16 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (CW) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology