MMR 2035FR

Emeis (EMEIS.PA): analysis and signal as of September 8, 2026

Published on · Updated on · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : Euronext Paris · Sector : Healthcare Services

In short

The signal is weak with a score of -4,0. The upside is limited as the consensus stands at 13,12 EUR against a price of 12,72 EUR.

Current signal
weak (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score
-4.0 → signal expected by the scale : no signal (September 10, 2026)
Layers
fundamentals : –, price : neutral, risks : –

Triggered rules

RuleWeight
penalizes a high bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score in distress zone, < 1,8)-3.0
penalizes an asset whose net debt/EBITDA exceeds the threshold, and the use of leverage (margin/lombard)-2.5
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns+1.0
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger+0.5

Thesis

Emeis is a small cap of 176,7 M EUR in health and health real estate. The recurring cash flow is negative at 40 M EUR in the first half of 2026. Operations are normalizing according to AlphaValue. The consensus of 13,12 EUR offers limited upside compared to the price of 12,72 EUR. The rise depends on retail support.

Bull case

AlphaValue and Baader Europe raised their recommendation and forecasts after the preliminary 2025 results. Operations are normalizing. The consensus of 13,12 EUR and the target of 13,00 EUR from 10 analysts outline a range of 12,50 to 13,50 EUR. The upside remains positive but narrow.

Bear case

The recurring cash flow is negative at 40 M EUR in the first half of 2026. Development real estate investments weigh on cash. The volume of stake sales is high. The rise comes from overnight trading with a cumulative gain of +82,5 % over two years. Intraday shows -6,3 % over two years and -15,1 % over six months. This profile indicates fragile retail support rather than healthy institutional flows.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario has a 25 % probability with a target of 13,50 EUR or +6,1 %. The central scenario has a 50 % probability with a stable price at 12,72 EUR. The bearish scenario has a 25 % probability with a maximum loss of -8,7 % compared to the 200-session moving average and -8,1 % compared to the 50-session moving average.

Risks

The negative recurring cash flow of 40 M EUR in the first half of 2026 constitutes the main risk. Development real estate investments and stake sales weigh on the structure. Dependence on retail support weakens the price dynamic. The limited upside compared to the consensus reduces rebound capacity.

Signal history (last 12 months)

DateSignalNew fact
weak (3/3)Personal analysis, not a recommendation.
weak (2/2)No new dated facts since 31/08. The score deterioration from -2,50 to -4,00 comes from a rule recalculation. No numerical publication. Note: Personal analysis, not a recommendation.
weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What is the price consensus for Emeis?

The consensus is set at 13,12 EUR. The target from 10 analysts is 13,00 EUR. The observed range goes from 12,50 to 13,50 EUR. The current price is 12,72 EUR. The upside is 3,6 % compared to the consensus.

Why is the signal weak?

The score is -4,0 with a vote of 3/3. The upside is limited to 3,6 % between the price of 12,72 EUR and the consensus of 13,12 EUR. The recurring cash flow is negative at 40 M EUR in the first half of 2026. The rise depends on fragile retail support.

What is the market capitalization of Emeis?

The market capitalization stands at 176,7 M EUR. The company operates in health and health real estate. The recurring cash flow is negative at 40 M EUR in the first half of 2026. Operations are normalizing according to AlphaValue on 04/09/2026.

What are the price scenarios?

The bullish scenario has a 25 % probability with a target of 13,50 EUR. The central scenario has a 50 % probability with a stable price at 12,72 EUR. The bearish scenario has a 25 % probability with a maximum loss of -8,7 % compared to the 200-session moving average.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

  • This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
  • Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
  • Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 8, 2026; this page was completed on September 8, 2026 at 12:24 (UTC).
  • Interests: no position in the stock analysed (EMEIS.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
  • This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
  • Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
  • Analysis horizon: 2035.

See also