Moody's Corporation (MCO): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 18:03 · Updated on September 4, 2026 at 01:34 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Commercial Services (Rating)

In short

The signal comes out weak on Moody's Corporation (MCO), with a vote of 1/1 and a score of 4,0, for a share price of 494,71 USD. The main reason lies in a forward PER of about 32 times that leaves no room for disappointment, in an environment of elevated long-term rates that weighs on the MIS segment.

Current signal: weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)
Deterministic score: +4.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : neutral, price : positive, risks : neutral

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat	+2.0
favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score)	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns	+1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5

Thesis

Moody's ticks the quality boxes: barriers to access tied to NRSRO status, recurring subscription revenues and low capital intensity. This strength nonetheless runs into a forward PER of about 32 times, at the top of the sector range, while the MIS (Markit) segment remains mechanically correlated with bond issuance activity in an environment of elevated long-term rates. The macro regime, neutral with a bullish tilt of 0,55, neither supports nor explicitly penalises the sector, and the upside potential of +11,9 % implied by the consensus does not, according to the analysis, offset rate sensitivity or a technical signal limited to intraday data, still to be confirmed.

Bull case

The franchise has a wide and durable moat, backed by the barriers to access of NRSRO status, and Moody's itself retains a AAA rating. A 1,5 Md USD share repurchase programme is underway and the dividend shows a yield of about 0,82 %. The structural exposure to growth in issuance linked to artificial intelligence and electrification projects also aligns with the regime favoured by the macro analysis, which constitutes long-term support for the business.

Bear case

The multiple of about 32 times forecast earnings sits at the top of the sector range and leaves no room for disappointment. The MIS segment remains sensitive to 10-year US long-term rates, in a regime of Fed policy rates between 3,50 and 3,75 % that explicitly penalises rate-sensitive stocks. Finally, no clear catalyst is identified, whether major news, an upward revision of the consensus or activist intervention, even though the price layer returns a favourable verdict.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario, weighted at 25 %, rests on US disinflation combined with a rebound in the MIS segment. The central scenario, weighted at 50 %, describes a sideways move in the share price driven by the dividend. The bearish scenario, weighted at 25 %, corresponds to a rate shock or a regulatory shock affecting the NRSRO framework in Europe. The price levels associated with each trajectory are not restated here.

Risks

The main risk comes from the sensitivity of the MIS segment to durably elevated long-term rates, which could weigh on bond issuance and therefore on revenues. A regulatory shock affecting NRSRO status in Europe is an additional threat, triggered in the bearish scenario. On the technical side, a lasting break of the momentum observed in intraday data would invalidate the favourable reading of the price layer. The demanding valuation finally amplifies the impact of any operational disappointment.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 1.62 %
Days to cover: 3.67
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
October 22, 2026	Q3 2026 results expected late October

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 2, 2026	weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged
August 31, 2026	moderate (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

Why is the signal described as weak despite the quality of the company?

The analysis recognises the quality of the franchise and its barriers to access, but the multiple of about 32 times forecast earnings leaves little room for disappointment. The neutral macro regime does not explicitly support the sector and the consensus upside potential, at +11,9 %, does not offset rate sensitivity or a technical signal limited to intraday data, still to be confirmed. The score of 4,0 reflects this trade-off.

What is the effect of rates on Moody's business?

The MIS (Markit) segment remains mechanically correlated with bond issuance activity. Elevated US long-term rates make financing more expensive and reduce issuance, which weighs on this segment. The analysis places Fed policy rates between 3,50 and 3,75 %, a regime that explicitly penalises rate-sensitive stocks. US disinflation would conversely be the catalyst of the bullish scenario, with a rebound in MIS.

Which elements support the bullish thesis?

The franchise has a wide and durable moat, grounded in NRSRO status, and the company retains its own AAA rating. A 1,5 Md USD share repurchase programme is underway and the dividend offers a yield of about 0,82 %. The structural exposure to growth in issuance linked to artificial intelligence and electrification projects fits into the regime favoured by the macro analysis, which constitutes long-term support.

What do the vote of 1/1 and the score of 4,0 mean?

The vote of 1/1 corresponds to a single voice expressed by the analysis device, and the score of 4,0 reflects moderate conviction. Together they lead to a signal described as weak. This level reflects the gap between the recognised quality of the company and a consensus upside potential, at +11,9 %, judged insufficient to offset rate sensitivity and a technical signal still to be confirmed.

Which event would invalidate the favourable technical reading?

The price layer currently returns a favourable verdict, but it rests on a technical signal limited to intraday data, which requires confirmation. A lasting break of this price momentum at the close would suffice to invalidate the favourable reading. A rate shock or a regulatory shock affecting the NRSRO framework in Europe would moreover trigger the bearish scenario, weighted at 25 % by the analysis.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 12, 2026 — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
July 23, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
July 22, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
April 23, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
April 22, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 01:34 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (MCO) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.