Evercore Inc. Class A (EVR): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal published on 2 September 2026 for Evercore Inc. Class A (EVR) remains weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a score of 1,0. It is explained mainly by a price held below the 200-day moving average, supported by off-session gaps, while first-half 2026 fundamentals set a record.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +1.0 → signal expected by the scale : weak (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : negative, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately penalizes an asset with very aggressive asset growth / investment (CMA factor favors conservatism), context-dependent | -0.5 |
Thesis
The thesis rests on a contrast between solid fundamentals and a weakened price structure. The first half of 2026 marks a record and the multiple has pulled back to 16,5 times earnings, against 22,4 on average over twelve months. The price nonetheless trades below the 200-day moving average, carried by opening gaps while the stock loses ground during the session, and growth decelerates sequentially in the second quarter. No new development since the analysis of 31 August changes this picture in the absence of a catalyst.
Bull case
The bull argument rests on a record first half of 2026: 2,38 Md USD in net revenues, up 56 %, and net income of 396,5 M USD against 243,4 M USD a year earlier. Second-quarter adjusted EPS came out at 2,91 USD, ahead of consensus by 4,1 %. Strategic advisory and underwriting activities reached records. The company also repurchased 2,3 M shares at an average of 324,60 USD. The decline of about 25 % below the annual high widens the margin of safety for this high-level advisory franchise.
Bear case
The bear argument highlights the price structure. At 290,49 USD on 02/09, the stock trades 9,1 % below its 50-day moving average and 11,5 % below its 200-day moving average. The two-year progression comes solely from off-session gaps, +34,5 % against -9,3 % in-session. Over six months, the gap widens to +18,1 % off-session against -21,1 % in-session, the signature of institutional distribution. Growth slows in the second quarter, +19 % after an exceptional first quarter. The 2027 comparison base becomes high and the macroeconomic regime does not include investment banking among its favoured sectors.
Scenarios
The bull scenario, weighted at 25 %, assumes a return of the price above its moving averages followed by convergence toward consensus expectations. The central scenario, weighted at 45 %, describes a consolidation phase whose outcome will depend on the Fed's trajectory and the mandate book. The bear scenario, weighted at 30 %, considers a maximum decline of about 22 % if the break below the 200-day moving average is confirmed.
Risks
Evercore remains a cyclical financial stock, which exposes the price to swings in advisory and underwriting activity. The quotation in US dollars adds a currency dimension. The published signal remains weak and the price structure stays fragile below the 200-day moving average. On the technical side, a confirmed break of this moving average at the close would invalidate the thesis.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 3.05 %
- Days to cover
- 2.03
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 and IPO window status |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | No new development since the analysis of 31 August: no publication, no forecast revision, no central bank decision, no new regulation. The price on 02/09 at 290,49 USD extends the described configuration. This content remains an informative analysis, without recommendation. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the signal shown for Evercore on 2 September 2026?
The signal is weak as of 2 September 2026, despite a vote of 3/3 and a score of 1,0. This combination reflects a nuanced finding: first-half 2026 fundamentals reach a record, but the price remains below its 200-day moving average and no news since 31 August justifies a higher signal.
What does the price structure reveal?
The price of 290,49 USD sits 9,1 % below the 50-day moving average and 11,5 % below the 200-day. Over two years, the rise comes solely from off-session gaps, +34,5 % against -9,3 % in-session. Over six months, the gap reaches +18,1 % off-session against -21,1 % in-session. This profile reflects institutional distribution.
What are the key figures for the first half of 2026?
Net revenues amount to 2,38 Md USD, up 56 %. Net income rises to 396,5 M USD against 243,4 M USD a year earlier. Second-quarter adjusted EPS reaches 2,91 USD, ahead of consensus by 4,1 %. Strategic advisory and underwriting businesses set records. The company repurchased 2,3 M shares at an average of 324,60 USD.
Which elements would weaken the thesis?
On the technical side, a confirmed break at the close below the 200-day moving average would invalidate the thesis. The bear scenario, weighted at 30 %, then considers a maximum decline of about 22 %. The second-quarter deceleration, +19 % after an exceptional first quarter, the high 2027 comparison base and a macroeconomic regime unfavourable to investment banking make up the other points of fragility.
Has any new development occurred since the analysis of 31 August?
No. No publication, no revision of management forecasts, no central bank decision and no new regulation has been noted since the analysis of 31 August. The price on 2 September, at 290,49 USD, extends the described configuration. The multiple of 16,5 times earnings, against 22,4 on average over twelve months, remains the main fundamental support.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:59 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (EVR) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology