Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026
In short
As of 2026-09-03, the analysis delivers no signal on Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), with a vote of 2/3 and a score of +2,00. The main reason is the confrontation between a solid fundamental base and a rate-sensitive valuation undergoing a technical downgrade, with the correction reaching -16,2 % against the 200-session moving average.
- Current signal
- no signal (vote 2/3) divergence
- Deterministic score
- +2.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : –, price : negative, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| penalizes an asset whose net debt/EBITDA exceeds the threshold, and the use of leverage (margin/lombard) | -2.5 |
| favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat | +2.0 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
Thesis
Fair Isaac Corporation combines a structural competitive advantage of an oligopolistic nature in B2B credit scoring and recognized accounting quality, which leads to a slightly positive deterministic score of +2,00. Its historically high valuation and the long duration of its multiple place it in the zone of rate-sensitive stocks, penalized by the macro table. The technical correction of -16,2 % against the 200-session moving average (MM200) confirms an ongoing downgrade. No analysis layer delivered any new dated fact: the previous verdict, conditional on the validation of catalysts, remains operational, with the BCE meeting of 10/09 and then the FY26 results (fiscal year closing 30/09/2026, publication early November 2026) as mandatory tests.
Bull case
The main bullish argument rests on a broad B2B competitive advantage in credit scoring, supported by the VantageScore joint venture alongside Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. ROIC is high and durable. The Piotroski F-Score stands at +1,5, gross profitability in the Novy-Marx sense at +1,0, and the fast-growth Lynch effect at +1,0. This structurally solid fundamental base is not called into question by the negative layers related to price and rate sensitivity.
Bear case
The main bearish argument lies in a high valuation within a macro regime that penalizes rate-sensitive stocks. The technical correction of -16,2 % against the 200-session moving average fits into a cumulative in-session decline of -31,9 % over 2 years, without brutal capitulation at the open. This configuration reads as an institutional downgrade taking place during sessions rather than as an opportunity, as long as the BCE of 10/09 and the FY26 results have not validated a stabilization above the 52-week low.
Scenarios
Bullish scenario, estimated at 25 %, if the BCE proves accommodating on 10/09 and if the FY26 results confirm organic growth and still active share repurchases, with a return of the multiple toward 35 to 40 times free cash flow. Central scenario, estimated at 50 %, if the FY26 results are in line, if the BCE remains neutral and if the downgrade continues without a break of the 52-week low. Bearish scenario, estimated at 25 %, if the BCE adopts a more restrictive tone than expected and if the American slowdown is confirmed (Indeed -2,2 %, INSEE 98,1), with compression of the software multiple, triggering of the invalidation and then a test of the 52-week floor. The reference price stands at 1099,45 USD.
Risks
The main risk identified is a hidden concentration within correlation group 4, where FICO sits alongside MA and V. A movement cost of 1,36 % also restricts the flexibility of trades on the stock. Finally, a weekly close below the 52-week low would mark the invalidation of the stabilization scenario and would support the thesis of a prolongation of the technical downgrade.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 8.59 %
- Days to cover
- 4.76
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Fiscal T4 2026 results |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| no signal (2/3) | Unchanged. No new dated fact was delivered during this session: no results, no forecasts, no regulatory development after early 2025, and no price movement crossing the invalidation threshold formed by the 52-week low. The technical layer renews a moderately negative verdict, the risk, sentiment and regulation layer remains weakly neutral, with the majority of elements after its formation window marked as potentially outdated. The fundamentals and accounting layer remains silent and delivered no figures. | |
| no signal (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What signal does the analysis assign to FICO as of 2026-09-03?
No signal. The vote stands at 2/3 and the score at +2,00, a slightly positive balance driven by fundamentals but judged insufficient in light of the valuation and the rate context. The previous verdict, conditional on the validation of catalysts, remains operational. The planned tests concern the BCE meeting of 10/09 and the FY26 results, published early November 2026 for a fiscal year closed on 30/09/2026.
Why does the valuation weigh on the analysis despite the quality of the model?
The analysis classifies FICO in the zone of rate-sensitive stocks: its high multiple and its long duration are penalized by the macro table in force. The correction of -16,2 % against the 200-session moving average and the cumulative in-session decline of -31,9 % over 2 years, without brutal capitulation at the open, point toward a reading of institutional downgrade rather than of opportunity.
What elements underpin the bullish thesis?
The base rests on a broad B2B competitive advantage in credit scoring, supported by the VantageScore joint venture alongside Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. ROIC is high and durable. The Piotroski F-Score comes out at +1,5, gross profitability in the Novy-Marx sense at +1,0, and the fast-growth Lynch effect at +1,0. These positive layers are not called into question by price or by rate sensitivity.
What are the scenarios considered and their probabilities?
Three scenarios are considered. The bullish scenario, at 25 %, assumes an accommodating BCE on 10/09 and FY26 results confirming organic growth and share repurchases, with a return of the multiple toward 35 to 40 times free cash flow. The central scenario, at 50 %, counts on results in line and a neutral BCE. The bearish scenario, at 25 %, incorporates a restrictive BCE and a confirmed American slowdown (Indeed -2,2 %, INSEE 98,1).
What concentration risk does the analysis highlight?
The analysis notes a hidden concentration within correlation group 4, where FICO operates alongside MA and V. It also retains a movement cost of 1,36 %, which limits the flexibility of trades. Finally, a weekly close below the 52-week low would mark the invalidation of the stabilization scenario.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — Q3-26 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q Q2-26 (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 22:06 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (FICO) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Equifax Inc (EFX)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology