LISI SA (FII.PA): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal on LISI SA is weak as of 2 September 2026, with a vote of three out of three and a score of 5,5. The main reason lies in the absence of any new development since the verdict of 31 August, while the market has been ignoring a fourth consecutive year of announced improvement in operating income since 23 July.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3) divergence
- Deterministic score
- +5.5 → signal expected by the scale : strong (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : positive, price : positive, risks : neutral
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns | +1.0 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
LISI combines a fourth consecutive year of announced improvement in operating income and an aerospace volume effect confirmed in the first half of 2026. The market has ignored this trajectory since 23 July: the share price remains 9,2 percent below its 50-day moving average and the macro regime of 29 August does not support the sector. No new dated development since the verdict of 31 August justifies anticipating the BCE of 10 September.
Bull case
Net income rises by 62 percent in the first half of 2026 and EBIT reaches 106,2 million euros, up 22,8 percent. LISI Aerospace posts a record level of 663,2 million euros. A320 production rates target 75 aircraft per month in 2027 and the deterministic score remains clearly positive.
Bear case
Cash conversion remains weak: operating cash flow stands at 5,9 million euros against 62,4 million of net income. The complete departure of Peugeot Invest has overloaded the free float with about 116 million euros. The overnight dynamic of the past six months weakens short-term momentum and the stock belongs to no favored theme of the macro regime.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario, weighted at 25 percent, rests on the reclaiming of the 50-day moving average. The central scenario, weighted at 50 percent, describes a consolidation until the release of revenue at the end of October. The bearish scenario, weighted at 25 percent, assumes a close below the 200-day moving average followed by a continuation of the correction.
Risks
A close below the 200-day moving average would invalidate the thesis and open the way to a continuation of the correction. The weak cash conversion, with 5,9 million euros of operating cash flow against 62,4 million of net income, constitutes an accounting point to monitor. The free float overloaded with about 116 million euros by the departure of Peugeot Invest and the absence of the stock from the favored themes of the macro regime of 29 August heighten the risk of stagnation.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 quarterly results expected |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | Unchanged. The price of 59,50 euros on 2 September was already incorporated into the analysis. No results, regulatory guidance or share price movement has occurred since 31 August. The deterministic score gap between +7,00 and +5,50 does not constitute a new development and both readings remain favorable. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the signal retained for LISI SA?
The signal is weak as of 2 September 2026, with a vote of three out of three and a score of 5,5. This combination reflects fundamentals judged favorable but an unfavorable market context: the share price remains 9,2 percent below its 50-day moving average, the macro regime of 29 August does not support the sector and no new development has occurred since the verdict of 31 August.
Why is the market ignoring the good results?
The market has ignored the stock since 23 July despite a fourth consecutive year of announced improvement in operating income. The macro regime of 29 August does not support the sector and the overnight dynamic of the past six months weakens short-term momentum. Moreover, the stock belongs to no theme favored by this regime.
What are the strengths of the first half of 2026?
Net income rises by 62 percent in the first half of 2026. EBIT stands at 106,2 million euros, up 22,8 percent, and LISI Aerospace reaches a record level of 663,2 million euros. A320 production rates target 75 aircraft per month in 2027. The deterministic score remains clearly positive.
What would invalidate the thesis?
A close below the 200-day moving average would call the thesis into question. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-day moving average would correspond to the bullish scenario, weighted at 25 percent. The central scenario, weighted at 50 percent, counts on a consolidation until the release of revenue at the end of October.
What can be said about the deterministic score gap?
The deterministic score gap between +7,00 and +5,50 does not constitute a new development, and both readings remain favorable. No results, regulatory guidance or share price movement has occurred since 31 August. The price of 59,50 euros on 2 September was already incorporated into the analysis. This finding underpins the weak signal issued on 2 September 2026.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — Rapport Semestriels 2026 (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
- — 2026 Half yearly results (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
- — LISI Rapport semestriel 2026 (AMF · Informations réglementées périodiques)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:55 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (FII.PA) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology