RTX Corporation (RTX): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026
In short
The signal on RTX Corporation is weak as of 02/09/2026, with a score of 3,5 and a vote of 3/3. Demonstrated growth and rearmament support run into steady intraday supply and sector underperformance, with no major new development since 31/08/2026.
- Current signal
- weak (vote 3/3)
- Deterministic score
- +3.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
- Layers
- fundamentals : –, price : positive, risks : positive
Triggered rules
| Rule | Weight |
|---|---|
| favors (GARP) a stock whose PEG is below 1, growth not yet paid for | +1.5 |
| favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score) | +1.5 |
| penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE | -1.0 |
| favors a "fast grower" profile, high and durable earnings growth (> 20 %), to be cross-checked against the PEG | +1.0 |
| moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger | +0.5 |
Thesis
RTX combines demonstrated growth with the structural support of rearmament, notably European rearmament. The price structure qualifies this reading: steady intraday supply and sector underperformance point to recurrent disposals. The accounting layer remains silent and no major new development has occurred since 31/08/2026. The third-quarter release is the next catalyst for the thesis.
Bull case
Second-quarter results, published on 23/07/2026, show sales of 24,7 Md USD, up 14 % year on year, together with an upgrade of the 2026 forecasts covering adjusted sales, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. Pentagon stock rebuilding and European rearmament support this momentum. The deterministic score comes out at +3,50, broken down into an attractive PEG (+1,5), a rapid growth profile (+1,0), Piotroski (+1,5) and momentum (+0,5).
Bear case
Over two years, the +121,3 % gain comes entirely from opening gaps, while the intraday move destroys -23,7 %, the signature of systematic institutional divestment session after session. The six-month underperformance against ITA confirms this, with +2,2 % versus -2,78 %. GTF inspections remain active and the impact of Section 232 tariffs, effective 08/06/2026, is not quantified in the forecasts.
Scenarios
The bullish scenario, estimated at about 30 % probability, rests on a consensus of 21 to 26 analysts counting on an appreciation of +14 to +19 %. The central scenario, at about 50 %, describes a consolidation phase with the price remaining above its 200-session moving average. The bearish scenario, at about 20 %, assumes a break below this moving average, opening a pullback of about -13 % from the 02/09/2026 price before a secondary invalidation.
Risks
The main risk lies in the price structure: the institutional divestment observed during sessions can continue and weigh on the stock despite fundamentals pointing upward. A break of the 200-session moving average would invalidate the thesis, with the secondary invalidation sitting at a lower level. At 200,78 USD, the stock trades 2,8 % below its 50-session moving average and 4,8 % above its 200-session moving average. GTF inspections and the unquantified impact of Section 232 tariffs introduce regulatory and commercial uncertainty. The weak signal also limits overall conviction.
Market positioning (short sellers)
- Short interest / shares outstanding
- 1.04 %
- Days to cover
- 3.11
- Settlement date
- 2026-08-14
- Source
- FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Description |
|---|---|
| UBS Industrials Conference | |
| Q3 2026 estimated results, | |
| Pace of military deliveries and European defence budgets |
Signal history (last 12 months)
| Date | Signal | New fact |
|---|---|---|
| weak (3/3) | No change. The only event after the 31/08/2026 verdict is the 02/09/2026 close at 200,78 USD, down 2,14 % during the session, on a volume of 4,69 M shares. This minor move does not change the thesis: the price remains above the 200-session moving average and the sector underperformance continues. | |
| weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol) | unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
What is the current signal on RTX and how should it be interpreted?
The 02/09/2026 signal is weak, with a score of 3,5 and a vote of 3/3. This level reflects the tension between fundamentals pointing upward, driven by rearmament, and a deteriorated price structure, marked by intraday disposals and underperformance against the sector. A weak signal does not constitute an incentive to act on the stock.
Why is the two-year performance judged fragile?
Over two years, the +121,3 % gain comes entirely from opening gaps, while the intraday move destroys -23,7 %. This combination reveals systematic institutional divestment in every session. The six-month underperformance against ITA, with +2,2 % versus -2,78 %, confirms this persistent supply pressure despite rising results.
Which fundamentals support the bullish scenario?
Second-quarter 2026 results, published on 23/07/2026, show sales of 24,7 Md USD, up 14 % year on year. Annual forecasts were raised on adjusted sales, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. Pentagon stock rebuilding and European rearmament support demand. The deterministic score reaches +3,50.
What would invalidate the thesis?
The thesis would be invalidated by a break of the 200-session moving average, while the stock currently trades 4,8 % above this indicator, at 200,78 USD. A secondary invalidation, at a lower level, would confirm the deterioration. The persistence of the six-month sector underperformance is another warning signal to monitor.
Has any new development occurred since the 31/08/2026 verdict?
The only dated subsequent event is the 02/09/2026 close at 200,78 USD, down 2,14 % during the session, on a volume of 4,69 M shares. This move remains minor with regard to the thesis: the price holds above the 200-session moving average and the observed sector underperformance continues without any new element.
Sources
The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
- — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders (SEC · 8-K)
- — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
- — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency
- This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
- Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
- Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 23:11 (UTC).
- Interests: no position in the stock analysed (RTX) is recorded in the data consulted on (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
- This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
- Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
- Analysis horizon: 2035.
See also
- Neighbouring stock in the same sector: Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA)
- All analysed stocks
- Public methodology