Waste Management, Inc. (WM): analysis and signal as of September 3, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 21:45 · Updated on September 3, 2026 at 22:35 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Environmental Services

In short

Waste Management shows a weak signal, with a unanimous vote of 3/3 and a score of 1,5. Solid fundamentals in the second quarter of 2026 are countered by a degraded technical configuration, sensitivity to long-term rates and the absence of a catalyst before the BCE meeting on 10/09.

Current signal: weak (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: +1.5 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : neutral, risks : positive

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score)	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Waste Management delivers solid operational fundamentals in the second quarter of 2026, with revenue up 4,0 %, an EBITDA margin improved by 90 basis points, earnings per share up 8,3 % and more than 1 Md USD returned to shareholders. The profile nonetheless remains sensitive to long-term rates, with substantial debt and a long implicit duration carried by the valuation multiples. The bullish-neutral market regime (0,55) weighs on the value style, which does not feature among the favored poles. The technical configuration has deteriorated since the previous verdict: the price of 219,04 USD trades below the 50-session moving average (-4,1 %) and below the 200-session moving average (-2,2 %), with a simultaneous break below both averages and intraday flows that have shifted into distribution at -9,4 % over six months. No identifiable catalyst occurs before the BCE meeting on 10/09 and then the publication of the T3 2026 results in late October. The thesis would be invalidated by a weekly confirmation of the break below the moving averages.

Bull case

The main bullish argument rests on recurring pricing power, with a core price up 5,7 %, a C&D yield of 3,6 % and adjusted EBITDA up 9,1 % excluding the impact of wildfires. The group has a defensive profile comparable to a utility, backed by long-term contracts. More than 1 Md USD is returned to shareholders every quarter and ROIC remains durable. Market leadership and the Stericycle integration provide growth drivers for the coming years.

Bear case

The main bearish argument highlights a deteriorated technical configuration, with a simultaneous break below the 50-session and 200-session moving averages and institutional distribution of intraday flows for six months. Exposure to long-term rates is intensifying in a context of a restrictive Warsh Fed (3,50-3,75 %). US estate taxation on US stocks penalizes the score by about -1,0, and total tax friction on dividends, close to 46,4 % (PFU 31,4 % and US withholding of 15 %), mechanically reduces the net yield. The calendar of upcoming market events (AVGO, BCE, CLARITY, Arc, Swiss TBTF, TSM ex-dividend) brings no catalyst specific to WM.

Scenarios

The bullish scenario, weighted at 25 %, rests on T3 results validating the Stericycle integration, sustained pricing pressure and a re-rating of the valuation multiple. The central scenario, weighted at 50 %, describes a sideways consolidation of the stock, free cash flow covering debt service and single-digit growth in earnings per share. The bearish scenario, weighted at 25 %, assumes a durably restrictive Fed, a compression of the multiple, continued institutional distribution and a maximum decline of about 15 %, a situation that would correspond to the invalidation of the thesis.

Risks

The weak signal is explained by a modest score of 1,5, the absence of a catalyst specific to WM and a degraded technical configuration. The main risk remains exposure to long-term rates, aggravated by a restrictive US monetary policy stance, which could compress the valuation multiple. Continued institutional distribution would weaken the stock further. Monitoring focuses on a weekly close confirming the break below the moving averages, which would constitute the invalidation signal for the thesis.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 1.54 %
Days to cover: 3.07
Settlement date: 2026-08-14
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-08-26)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
October 1, 2026	Third quarter 2026 results expected

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 3, 2026	weak (3/3)	No change reported since the previous publication. This content remains an informative analysis and does not constitute personalized advice.
September 1, 2026	weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

Why is the signal weak despite solid results?

The second quarter 2026 results are solid, with revenue up 4,0 %, an EBITDA margin improved by 90 basis points and earnings per share up 8,3 %. However, the technical configuration has deteriorated, the stock remains sensitive to long-term rates and no specific catalyst is identified before the BCE meeting on 10/09 and then the T3 results in late October.

What is the technical situation of the stock?

The price of 219,04 USD sits below the 50-session moving average (-4,1 %) and below the 200-session moving average (-2,2 %), with a simultaneous break below both averages. Intraday flows have shifted into distribution for six months, at -9,4 %. This technical deterioration partly explains the weak signal delivered by the analysis.

What are the group's growth drivers?

The group has recurring pricing power, with a core price up 5,7 % and a C&D yield of 3,6 %. Adjusted EBITDA is up 9,1 % excluding the impact of wildfires. The Stericycle integration serves as a growth driver, while more than 1 Md USD is returned to shareholders every quarter.

What taxation applies to dividends?

Dividends paid by a US company bear total tax friction of about 46,4 % for a French tax resident, combining the PFU of 31,4 % and the US withholding of 15 %. There is also a US estate tax risk on US stocks, which penalizes the score by about -1,0 according to the methodology of the analysis.

What would invalidate the investment thesis?

The thesis would be weakened by a confirmation at the weekly close of the break below the moving averages, by continued institutional distribution or by the maintenance of a restrictive US monetary policy between 3,50 and 3,75 %. The vote nonetheless remains unanimous (3/3) and the score stands at 1,5, a moderate level.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 26, 2026 — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 7.01 Reg… (SEC · 8-K)
July 29, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
July 28, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
May 14, 2026 — 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
May 13, 2026 — 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; 9.01 Fin… (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 3, 2026; this page was completed on September 3, 2026 at 22:35 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (WM) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.