Walmart (WMT): analysis and signal as of September 2, 2026

Published on September 2, 2026 at 18:22 · Updated on September 4, 2026 at 00:30 · by Aurélien Ambert, QDNA

Exchange : NYSE · Sector : Distribution

In short

The signal published on Walmart is weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a weighted score of 3,00. The main reason lies in the simultaneous break below the 50 and 200 session moving averages (-4,4 % and -10,1 %), which signals a medium-term trend reversal that has not yet been invalidated.

Current signal: weak (vote 3/3)
Deterministic score: +3.0 → signal expected by the scale : moderate (September 10, 2026)
Layers: fundamentals : positive, price : negative, risks : neutral

Triggered rules

Rule	Weight
favors a high and durable return on invested capital (ROIC), a marker of a lasting moat	+2.0
penalizes a PEG above 2, the anticipated growth is overpaid (overvalued fast grower)	-1.5
favors robust fundamental health (high Piotroski F-Score)	+1.5
penalizes direct holding of US securities in a CTO (US estate tax at death), favors a UCITS ETF domiciled in IE	-1.0
favors high gross profitability (gross profit / assets), a robust predictor of returns	+1.0
moderately favors an asset with robust operating profitability (RMW factor), cross-check with accounting quality (possible manipulation)	+0.5
moderately favors a positive 12-1 month momentum (tailwind), BUT guardrail: costly rotation, long-term reversal, momentum crashes, a conviction signal, not a rotation trigger	+0.5

Thesis

Walmart retains a quality defensive value profile, with a defensible competitive advantage and high profitability. The simultaneous break below the 50 and 200 session moving averages (-4,4 % and -10,1 %) however signals a medium-term trend reversal that has not yet been invalidated. The BCE meeting of 10/09 and the TSM ex-dividend of 16/09 introduce a risk of sector rotation unfavorable to consumer staples names with low pricing power, in a neutral macroeconomic regime weighted at only 0,55 in favor of the bull scenario. No dated bull catalyst has occurred since the verdict of 30/08. The thesis would be confirmed by a return above the 50 session moving average accompanied by volume, or by a confirmation after the BCE meeting.

Bull case

The bull argument rests on a broad competitive advantage, attested by the Buffett references and by a high ROIC, on a solid Piotroski score (F-Score) and on high gross profitability. The consumer staples profile makes the company a safe-haven stock in the event of a macroeconomic slowdown, with structural pricing power in American food retail.

Bear case

The bear argument lies first in valuation, with a forward PER of 30-35x on American retail distribution against ~15x for Target. Added to this is a significant tariff exposure, linked to China, Mexico and Vietnam, in a neutral macroeconomic regime whose weighting penalizes exports, automobiles and discretionary consumption. A restrictive tone from the BCE on 10/09 can in addition compress the multiples of quality names with strong pricing power.

Scenarios

Bull scenario, probability below 30 %: 115-120 USD over 12 months, with a competitive advantage reabsorbed, pricing power that offsets tariffs and unfavorable rotation stopped. Central scenario, probability below 50 %: a range of 100-110 USD, reflecting contrasted behavior between demand flows during the session and supply flows at the open. Bear scenario, probability below 20 %: 88-95 USD, a maximum decline of -17 %, if tariffs compress margins and if rotation toward AI and technology penalizes the multiple of defensive quality.

Risks

The main risk lies in margin compression under the effect of tariffs, given the exposure to China, Mexico and Vietnam. The ongoing rotation toward AI and technology penalizes the multiple of quality defensive names, and a restrictive tone from the BCE on 10/09 could amplify this pressure. The break below the 50 and 200 session moving averages has not been invalidated, and the thesis would weaken if the decline continued without a return above the 50 session moving average. No dated bull catalyst has occurred since the verdict of 30/08.

Market positioning (short sellers)

Short interest / shares outstanding: 1.96 %
Days to cover: 2.55
Settlement date: 2026-08-31
Source: FINRA (disseminated on 2026-09-12)

Market information published by FINRA (consolidated short interest, all venues), no directional comment.

Upcoming catalysts

Date	Description
November 19, 2026	Q3 fiscal 2027 results

Signal history (last 12 months)

Date	Signal	New fact
September 2, 2026	weak (3/3)	No new dated fact between 30/08/2026 and 02/09/2026 justifies a modification of the weak signal. The weighted deterministic score remains at +3,00 with exactly the same rules triggered. The AVGO publication of 02/09 does not constitute a catalyst specific to Walmart. The BCE meeting of 10/09 and the CLARITY vote of 15/09 are still ahead. The price of 106,21 USD on 02/09 confirms the break below the 50 and 200 session moving averages, without bringing an invalidation or a reversal.
August 30, 2026	weak (single draw, outside the three-draw protocol)	unchanged

Frequently asked questions

What is the current signal on Walmart?

The signal is weak, with a vote of 3/3 and a weighted deterministic score of +3,00, unchanged since the verdict of 30/08. This assessment reflects a technical break below the 50 and 200 session moving averages, of -4,4 % and -10,1 %, combined with a neutral macroeconomic regime weighted at only 0,55 in favor of the bull scenario, without a dated bull catalyst.

Why has the medium-term trend deteriorated?

The stock broke simultaneously below its 50 and 200 session moving averages, with gaps of -4,4 % and -10,1 %. This configuration signals a medium-term trend reversal not yet invalidated. The price of 106,21 USD on 02/09 confirms this break, without bringing an invalidation of the thesis or a reversal.

What are the company's main strengths?

Walmart has a broad competitive advantage, attested by the Buffett references and by a high ROIC, a solid Piotroski score (F-Score) and high gross profitability. Its consumer staples profile makes it a safe-haven stock in the event of a macroeconomic slowdown, supported by structural pricing power in American food retail.

What elements justify caution on valuation?

The forward PER reaches 30-35x on American retail distribution, against ~15x for Target. Tariff exposure to China, Mexico and Vietnam is significant. The neutral macroeconomic regime penalizes exports, automobiles and discretionary consumption, and a restrictive tone from the BCE on 10/09 can compress the multiples of quality names.

What are the next scheduled events for the stock?

The BCE meeting of 10/09 constitutes the main event, followed by the CLARITY vote of 15/09 and the TSM ex-dividend of 16/09. The AVGO publication of 02/09 does not constitute a catalyst specific to Walmart. These events introduce a risk of sector rotation unfavorable to consumer staples names with low pricing power.

Sources

The official filings below are the issuer's own, matched to this stock by its identifier (LEI, CIK or ISIN). The figures quoted above come from an automated arbitration: they have not been re-checked one by one.

August 28, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
August 20, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)
June 5, 2026 — 5.03 Amendments to Articles of Incorporation or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statemen… (SEC · 8-K)
May 29, 2026 — 10-Q (SEC · 10-Q)
May 21, 2026 — 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits (SEC · 8-K)

Automated AI analysis: limitations and transparency

This content is an automated analysis produced using artificial intelligence. Personal analysis for information purposes — no personalised investment advice. MMR content consists of general research. It does not take account of your financial circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Data, analyses and results, including those produced using artificial intelligence, may contain errors, be incomplete or become outdated. No return or outcome is guaranteed. All investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance and simulations do not predict future results. Before making any decision, check information against original sources and, where necessary, consult an authorised professional. You remain responsible for your investment decisions. This notice does not exclude or limit any liability that cannot legally be excluded or limited.
Tool and analysis: QDNA, Aurélien Ambert.
Analysis (arbitration) completed on September 2, 2026; this page was completed on September 4, 2026 at 00:30 (UTC).
Interests: no position in the stock analysed (WMT) is recorded in the data consulted on September 12, 2026 (UTC). This does not confirm the absence of holdings or other interests. The situation at the analysis publication date has not been reconstructed.
This declaration covers only recorded positions in this stock; it is not an exhaustive verification of other interests or remuneration.
Methodology: analysis chain, score formula and scale described on the public methodology page.
Analysis horizon: 2035.